FXUS63 KPAH 051729
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1129 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS TO CLEAR THE SE EARLY THIS AM/INCLUDING ANY FLURRY
ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA. CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TO RULE TIL SUNDAY...THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ITS INCREASE THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY IS OUR NEXT WX SYSTEM AND PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE. HPC RECOMMENDS THE ECMWF (BY AND LARGE) AND THIS MEANS
A HIGH LIKELY EVENT WITH PROBABLY ONLY THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHC SNOW. THERE COULD BE AN HOUR OF
FREEZING PCPN WHERE SURFACE TEMPS DIP TO 32 BUT GENERALLY THIS
OCCURS AFTER THE PRIMARY MRH FIELD SHIFTS EAST W/THE WX
SYSTEM...SO WL OMIT ITS MENTION AND STICK TO RA OR SN NORTH AND
JUST RA SOUTH...WHICH COLLABORATES WELL.

AFTER THE SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON SYSTEM...A BRIEF REPRIEVE FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER CHC PCPN TUE-WED. THIS LOOKS REASONABLY WELL COVERED
IN THE EXISTING PACKAGE AND THE 00Z MODELS OFFER NOT A SIGNIFICANT
DEPARTURE FROM WHAT WE INHERIT SO LTL/NO CHANGES THERE.

WE WERE BRIEFED THE GFS WAS TOO COLD (HISTORY) AND IT WOULD SEEM
THE NAM IS A LITTLE WARM ON PLAN VIEW SURFACE TEMPS...SO WE'LL TRY
TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO W/A STRONG BIAS TOWARD THE HPC
RECOMMENDED ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 8 KNOTS AS THEY BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY...WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. 

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$