FXUS64 KFWD 160233 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
833 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO LOWER LOWS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 PER CLEAR SKIES
AND CONTINUED CAA. VERY DRY POLAR AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS
IS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY CURRENTLY. TEMP ADVECTION
PER MODELS ONLY GOES NEUTRAL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH MIXING
ONLY DOWN FROM 950-925MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...LOWERED HIGHS ABOUT
A CATEGORY ON TUESDAY. MOST AREAS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT
OF THE MID TO UPPER 40S...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD NUDGE 50 DEG F.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON ALL OTHER PARAMETERS AND INTO THE FUTURE
ON TRACK. UPDATE SENT.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF PACKAGE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO EXTEND DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS
RESULTING IN NORTH WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN
10 KTS BEFORE SUNSET AND AVERAGE 4-7 KTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FEW TO SCATTERED MID
AND HIGH CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009/
MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER
AND 40S ELSEWHERE. EXPECTING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES ....UPPER 20S IN THE
METROPLEX AND MID 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR WEST TEXAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD AS IT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION
EASTWARD. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
UPPER ENERGY OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE OVERNIGHT. THIS TROUGH
WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST BUT WILL STAY WELL OFF
SHORE. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA AND GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE OUTLIER AND BRINGS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF WACO...BUT
DO NOT BELIEVE THIS GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BLOCK NORTH TEXAS
OF ANY RETURN OF MOISTURE.
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
YESTERDAY...BOTH MODELS WERE CONSISTENT IN RETROGRADING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND DROPPING
ANOTHER TROUGH DOWN FROM CANADA. THE GFS KEPT THE TROUGH AND
COLDEST AIR IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND THE ECMWF
BROUGHT A STRONGER TROUGH FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE COLD AIR IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TODAYS 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOKS
SIMILAR WITH A SOLUTION CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE GFS.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT
THE BITTER COLD AIR THE ECMWF WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.
85/NH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 26 50 35 59 37 / 0 0 0 5 5
WACO, TX 28 50 37 60 39 / 5 5 10 10 5
PARIS, TX 25 47 32 58 35 / 5 0 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 22 50 32 61 35 / 0 0 0 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 24 48 30 59 33 / 0 0 0 5 0
DALLAS, TX 28 51 37 61 42 / 0 0 0 5 0
TERRELL, TX 28 49 36 61 37 / 0 0 0 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 30 49 35 59 37 / 5 0 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 31 49 38 60 37 / 10 10 20 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/05
