FXUS62 KTAE 091440
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
940 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY A NEGATIVELY 
TILTED TROF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS 
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A DEEP LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A TRAILING COLD 
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES WITH A WARM FRONT 
EXTENDING FROM TENNESSEE THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTH ACROSS THE 
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PLACES OUR LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR 
OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM 
DEVELOPMENT. A COUPLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS WERE ISSUED THIS 
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE 
WHICH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF 
FLORIDA INTO THE GOMEX. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS A 
PORTION OF OUR SOUTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES UNTIL 10 AM EST. AS THE 
MORNING PROGRESSES AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS THE BEST 
DYNAMICS NORTH OF OUR AREA...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BEGIN TO 
DIMINISH. ONE AREA THAT WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IS ALONG OUR 
COASTAL LOCATIONS AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST. MODERATE 
INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL 
STILL SUPPORT THE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM. THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE 
LANDFALL. ALONG THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS...CONDITIONS HAVE 
STAYED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED.  

&&

.AVIATION...A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM KPFN NORTHEAST 
THROUGH KABY. IN REGIONS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY. AS 
THE SQUALL LINE PROGRESSES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON...CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM MVFR TO VFR BEHIND THE LINE.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...
     JACKSON...WASHINGTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

HARRIGAN/GOULD/GODSEY