FXUS62 KFFC 282336 AAB
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
635 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.UPDATE...
WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
MIN TEMP FOR ATL TONIGHT. COOLING DOWN A SLOWER THAN PROJECTED
DIURNALLY BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER...BUT MINS SHOULD STILL BE AS
FORECAST. DROPPED ATL A COUPLE DEGREES TO REMAIN MORE CONSISTENT
WITH SURROUNDING SITES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY WILL KEEP GA
IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A WEAK SHORT WAVE ON WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND PUSHING IT THROUGH THE STATE TOMORROW MORNING....LEAVING US IN
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AND DRY AIR WILL PREVENT
THIS SHORT WAVE FROM PRODUCING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.
NRN LATITUDE TROF AND SFC FRONT SWING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW
MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WON'T RECOVER IN TIME FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OR SEVERE THREAT. GFS IS AGAIN THE FASTEST OF
THE MODELS...SO WILL OPT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION.
THAT MEANS POPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN MAV FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS GFS
PUSHES FRONT TOO FAST ACROSS THE STATE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT AS FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR OVER
CENTRAL GA BY MONDAY NIGHT...PER THE SREF.
MOS MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT ARE A BIT TOO COOL FOR THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED. HAVE RAISED THEM A COUPLE DEGREES.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DO NOT EXPECT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT LONG TERM
PACKAGE. QUICK SHOT OF POST-FRONTAL DRY AIR ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A
BREAK IN THE RAIN...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY AS THE NEXT WAVE LIFTS OUT OF
THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTRIBUTES TO A WEDGE EVENT. AS IS
TYPICAL...GFS TRIES TO ERODE THE WEDGE FASTER THAN IS LIKELY. ECMWF
IS DOING MUCH THE SAME THING. HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY
MORNING TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY OF A LINGERING
WEDGE...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THIS INTO THURSDAY
IF TREND OF SLOWER GFS CONTINUES...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT DECISION FOR
THE NEXT PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...UPDATE...
ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING CALM BUT FAVORING A LIGHT WSW
DIRECTION FOR ATL. BDL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 41 68 46 64 37 / 0 0 20 60 40
ATLANTA 45 67 51 61 37 / 0 0 30 60 30
BLAIRSVILLE 36 62 41 53 31 / 0 0 40 60 20
CARTERSVILLE 37 64 45 58 34 / 0 0 40 60 20
COLUMBUS 40 69 50 69 40 / 0 0 10 40 40
GAINESVILLE 43 66 48 59 37 / 0 0 30 60 20
MACON 37 69 47 70 38 / 0 0 10 30 40
ROME 37 64 46 56 35 / 0 0 50 50 20
PEACHTREE CITY 35 68 42 61 34 / 0 0 20 60 40
VIDALIA 35 69 43 72 41 / 0 0 5 20 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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