FXUS64 KLZK 090930
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
329 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009
.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
INTENSE SURFACE STORM SYSTEM CLEARLY SEEN ON MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL...NEGATIVELY TILTED...TROF NOW OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXPECTED TO ROTATE QUICKLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. RESULTANT UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE NATION...ANCHORED BY STRONG RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE
OUTLIER. WITH GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...WILL BLEND THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING BUT NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE NAM LATER IN THE
PERIOD.
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LAG WELL BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM AND CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A MOUNTAIN HOME TO MOUNT
IDA TO TEXARKANA LINE. BOUNDARY ACCOMPANIED BY BAND OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR SWEEPING IN BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES DROP ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. WILL NEED
TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WITH
SOME AREAS LIKELY SEEING STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY.
STILL EXPECTING A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS/DEWPTS ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY WEST AND NW WINDS...SUSTAINED AT 15 TO
25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH WILL SLIP
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY BUT ONLY MINIMAL WARMING IS
EXPECTED AS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.
MODELS CONSISTENT IN MOVING A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SOUTH
OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS ALL FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE WITH ONLY THE NAM BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. BUFKIT/MODELS SOUNDINGS KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM EVEN WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING AT
NIGHT BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ON SATURDAY CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THE PREVAILING FLOW...AGAIN PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN LIQUID FORM.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY START TO THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE
SOMEWHAT AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MA/MEX NUMBERS/TRENDS LOOK
REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE TO START THE LONG TERM...WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK.
MODELS BRING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE IS STILL
SOME DISCREPANCY WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO
ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW. LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE STATE BY THE TIME COLD AIR ARRIVES...SO KEPT
PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM ONLY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY IN THE WEEK...FALLING BACK BELOW
NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 37 19 39 23 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 46 24 45 31 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 32 17 37 22 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 40 22 43 28 / 0 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 40 23 42 28 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 51 25 45 31 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 38 22 42 28 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 33 18 37 22 / 0 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 40 20 40 24 / 0 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 46 24 44 29 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 36 19 40 26 / 0 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 39 21 41 26 / 0 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 44 23 43 28 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...60
