FXUS62 KMHX 291835
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
135 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE W MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W TUESDAY AND SLIDE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE WELL TO THE W WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIFTING A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N OF THE AREA THURSDAY AS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SW
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONT OFFSHORE WITH SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
45 TO 50 INLAND TO LOW/MID 50S OBX. EXPECT MCLR SKIES EARLY
BECOMING PC LATE WITH MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W
MON. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPECT DECENT
COVERAGE OF SHRA INLAND LATE. WILL CONT WITH HIGH CHC POPS DEEP INLAND
TO SLIGHT OR NO CHC IMD CST AFT 18Z. WITH POSS A LITTLE SUN FIRST
PART OF DAY THINK A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH 70 INLAND. BEST RAIN CHC
WILL OCCUR FROM 23Z TO 04Z AS FRONT CROSSES. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WITH BEST CHCS NE
SECTIONS. RAIN WILL END AFT 06Z AS FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE
AND DRIER AIR QUICKLY SPREAD IN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 40 INLAND TO MID/UPR 40S BEACHES. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUE AND SLIDE OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT WITH DRY COOL
WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS TUE MAINLY 55 TO 60 WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT
UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...MDLS CONT TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR RATHER
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM LATER WED INTO THU. UPR LOW OVER TX WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NE. SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
NE TO THE W OF THE AREA LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. AS THIS LOW PASSES
TO THE W IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT N THROUGH THE REGION WITH
STRONG ISENT LIFT PRODUCING GOOD CVRG OF SHRA LATE WED AND ESPCLY WED
NIGHT. INCREASING SRLY FLOW IN WARM SECTOR LATER WED NIGHT MAY
DRAW ENOUGH INSTAB ONSHORE FOR THREAT OF A FEW TSRA AND GIVEN WIND
FIELDS WOULD HAVE TO BE CONCERNED WITH POSS SEVERE WEATHER WITH
ANY CONVECTION. DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT WILL LEAD TO SOME
HEAVY RAIN WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS POINT. STRONG
SE TO S WINDS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU AND MAY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND ADVRY AND COASTAL FLOOD/HIGH SURF THREATS AS WELL
ESPCLY SINCE WILL BE IN VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDE CYCLE. WILL KEEP POPS
IN LIKELY RANGE FOR NOW WED NIGHT INTO THU SINCE STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH/ADJUST. WILL BE MILD WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL CROSS THU
HOWEVER TEMPS WILL MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 60S BEFORE ANY CAA
DEVELOPS. THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRES
TO THE SW GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND START
LOWERING MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. MVFR CIGS/VIS
LIKELY WITH SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG
SYSTEM TO MOVE UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE
WINDS START TO PICK UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR CIG/VIS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING 10 TO 15
KNOTS. FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND WILL APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
TIGHTENING GRADIENT. GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
TIGHTER AND WIND WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY WITH SURFACE WIND TURNING FROM
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TO EASTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH WIND FROMTHE SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS IS
A LARGE SYSTEM AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG
MARINE...CGG
