FXUS63 KMPX 092345
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
545 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 246 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009/

IN THE NEAR TERM...SNOWFALL AND SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE DOWN 
THIS EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO DOWNGRADE THE BLIZZARD WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THRU MIDNIGHT TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COMBINATION
OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...AND CONFINED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO SOUTH CENTRAL
MN. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH IN OPEN AREAS
AT LEAST THROUGH 700 PM...THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 MPH OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOTORISTS TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. LOW PRES SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ADVERSE WINTRY/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE MIDWEST...WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN CANADA. A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AND WINDS 
REMAINING ABOVE 10 MPH...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LOWER TO 25 TO 30 
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND AND 
CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY 
MORNING...MAINLY FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN.  

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS LOWERING 
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. SKIES WILL BECOME 
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN 
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. 

THE LATEST MODEL RUN...SHOWED A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  MOST MOISTURE 
WILL GET SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS 
GOING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE WEEKEND. 

LONG RANGE MODEL TREND...SHOWED A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN 
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE 
CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO INDICATED SOME DISCONTINUITY...ONLY 
ON THE STRENGTH OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE 
NORTHERN PLAINS. 

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SFC WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING...AND LOSE THE GUSTS BY MIDNIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SLIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING...GENERALLY INTO THE 4SM-6SM RANGE. MVFR
CIGS WILL ALSO LINGER THIS EVE...AND IMPROVE MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT AS
THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.
HOWEVER...STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY...AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO WESTERLY
IN DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY
MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF BKN-OVC MVFR
CIGS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES TO KAXN /AND POSSIBLY KSTC/ ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-
     DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-YELLOW 
     MEDICINE.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-
     BROWN-CARVER-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-
     MCLEOD-MEEKER-MORRISON-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-
     SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BLUE 
     EARTH-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$