FXUS63 KICT 251745
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1145 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED DEFINED DRY
SLOT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS DRY SLOT IS A SIGN OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THIS AREA WHICH IS HELPING AID THE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER AND BETTER MIXING. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE KEPT SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. CNU
TAF SITE IS STILL AROUND 10KTS...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DEPART DURING THE NEXT HOUR AND
ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER BY 19Z OR SO.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS
BEGINNING AFTER SUNSET.
COX
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
UPDATE...
REMOVED THE REMAINDER OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST AND UPDATED
ALL GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS. MAIN CONCERN IS THE
WIND. UP IN CENTRAL KANSAS IT SEEMS THAT THEY ARE MIXING OUT WITH
GUST IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30KTS. COULD BE BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
DUNTEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME RELATIVELY LOWER CIGS THIS
MORNING.
CURRENTLY HAVE A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE THERE ARE SOME CIGS GENERALLY AROUND
THE 4,000-8,000FT LEVEL. IN ADDITION A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT
PRECIP WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST QUICKLY AND BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AREA WIDE. JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY...NW WINDS WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
KS WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH COMMON.
LAWSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT:
WELL ADVERTISED SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VLY TODAY-TONIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL SURGE SWD THRU OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT/MARGINAL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT COULD
RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES THIS AM MAINLY IN CENTRAL
KS...OTHERWISE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
GUSTY NW WINDS. NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS...BUT
CERTAINLY ENOUGH MIXING/GRADIENT FOR THE "WINDY" CATEGORY. SOME PM
SUN SHOULD HELP OFFSET THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SOME WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS. LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES/DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY:
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE
NERN PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR AREA
IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH BENIGN
WEATHER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOR
KANSAS STANDARDS. EXCELLENT HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEATHER ON TAP DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD IN AND SURROUNDING OUR FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY:
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF EVOLVES
AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TO SAY THAT THE GFS RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS UPPER TROF IS POOR IS AN
UNDERSTATEMENT. LAST NIGHT'S 00Z/24 ECMWF CENTERED ON 00Z TUES HAD
BACK TO BACK RUNS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER LOW EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EMPHASIZING THE SRN PIECE OF ENERGY WITHIN THE UPR
TROF. IT HAD PAINTED A CONCERNING WINTER STORM SCENARIO. THE PAST 2
RUNS INCLUDING TONIGHTS 00Z/25TH RUN HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM THAT
SCENARIO AND NOW SHOW THE SYSTEM COMING ACROSS AS A LESS FORMIDABLE
POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF IS HEAVILY FAVORED BY HPC
AND WE CONTINUE TO LEAN WITH THIS MODEL. HOWEVER THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIME PERIOD REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE DISCUSSED
CHANGES IN THE ECMWF AND THE MUCH WORSE GFS MODEL CONTINUITY. AT
THIS JUNCTURE...WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SUNDAY OVER
S-CNTRL/SERN KS AS MOISTURE INCREASES INTO THE 850-700 MB FRONTAL
ZONE. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SEWD OUT OF SERN KS SUN NGT AND
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH AND END AS LIGHT SNOW. ONCE AGAIN...AS WE HAVE
SEEN IN THE RECENT COUPLE OF SYSTEMS...COLD AIR SUPPLY IS MARGINAL
(GIVEN THE ECMWF VERIFIES)...SO NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS ATTM.
MON IS LOOKING DRIER AND SLT CHC POPS MAY NEED REMOVAL BY LATER
SHIFTS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL SUN-TUES.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 53 27 54 30 / 10 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 52 27 55 31 / 10 0 0 0
NEWTON 52 28 53 31 / 10 0 0 0
ELDORADO 52 28 52 31 / 10 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 55 29 54 30 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELL 51 25 56 30 / 10 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 51 24 56 30 / 10 0 0 0
SALINA 51 27 53 30 / 10 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 51 27 54 31 / 10 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 55 29 51 30 / 10 0 0 0
CHANUTE 53 28 49 30 / 10 0 0 0
IOLA 52 27 48 30 / 10 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 54 29 50 30 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
