FXUS63 KMKX 260918
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY-
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS CHICAGO AREA ON COURSE FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT AN INCH OR
SO OF WET SNOW ON CAR TOPS AND GRASSY AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES WHILE WARMER AIR AND RAIN CONTINUED TO THE NORTH.

LOCAL 4KM WRF RUNS SHOW WARM AIR PUSHING IN ON NORTH WINDS THIS
MORNING...REMNANTS OF OCCLUSION FEATURE. THIS ALREADY SHOWING UP
WITH LOWER 40S IN FLD AND SBM AND SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH FROM MSN TO MKE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A
WHILE EARLY THIS MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING STEADILY EAST THIS MORNING WITH ALL RAIN OUT OF CWA BEFORE
NOON.  

TRAILING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH COLD ADVECTION SETTING IN. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WARMEST THIS
MORNING WITH NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  

TONIGHT-
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:  MEDIUM

ONLY ISSUE IS CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS. USING CONSENSUS 925 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS GUIDE...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAKING BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND CERTAINLY DURING THE EVENING EAST.
ALTHOUGH ONLY AVERAGE COLD EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL SEEM RATHER
COLD GIVEN RECENT MILD CONDITIONS.  

FRIDAY-
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:  HIGH

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER AREA WHILE IMPRESSIVE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO PLAINS. 850 MB TEMPS RISE ABOUT 6 C SO
COLD MORNING SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DECENT AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.  

SATURDAY-
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:  HIGH

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES. RATHER
WEAK SURFACE FLOW PATTERN AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +5 TO +10C
ON GFS/ECMWF. SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY. 

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY-
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:  MEDIUM

POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH PUSHES INTO MIDWEST AND PUSHES FRONT
SOUTH INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. ECMWF HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH AND NO LONGER SUGGESTS DECENT SHOT AT SNOW IN SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.  

PRUDENT TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW BUT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A BIG DEAL AT THIS TIME. 

MONDAY-
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:  MEDIUM

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE CYCLONIC SIDE OF
UPPER JET WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL LIMIT
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CWA.  

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING UNTIL UPPER LOW 
ENTERING SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN PUSHES EAST. SURFACE TROUGH LAGGING 
BACK INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. WITH RATHER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER 
EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH MAINLY SNOW IN THE HEAVIER 
PRECIPITATION AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. AS TROUGH MOVES EAST 
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BY AROUND 15Z. 

EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO SCATTER FROM THE WEST MOST AREAS TONIGHT AS 
TROUGH EXITS THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO 
WESTERN WISCONSIN. 

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND 
TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLD AIR 
MOVES ACROSS THE WARMER WATERS.  EXPECT WINDS TO RISE ABOVE SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.  

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CST FRIDAY 
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...CRAVEN/02 
AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ/06