FXUS63 KSGF 252352
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE CONSEQUENCES OF A POWERFUL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE BRISK WINDS AND RESULTING WIND
CHILLS ARE STILL A CONCERN...AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES. QUIETER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PERSIST AS THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE. WE WILL SEE
MULTIPLE BOUTS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THAT LOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN THE AREA ALONG
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION A FEW LOCATIONS UP ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI COULD SEE A
FEW TENTHS...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WE WILL
NOT SEE BIG DIURNAL TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST WHERE SKIES MAY FINALLY CLEAR OUT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND...WHICH WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. WE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A SLOW
WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY ONCE A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN SHIFT A GENERAL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK. NOT SURE IF THIS
WILL COME IN PHASED OR IN SEPARATE PIECES. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH ENSEMBLES STILL NOT LOCKING IN ON ANY
SPECIFIC TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE...LONG WAVE CHARTS ARE SHOWING A
GOOD SIGNAL FOR CROSS POLAR FLOW SETTING UP. ARCTIC AIR WILL
LIKELY POOL UP ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THIS MAKES THE PLUNGE TOWARDS THE OZARKS LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
SCHAUMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...CLOUDS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ROTATING AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE VFR
AND MVFR CEILINGS DURING THIS TAF CYCLE. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THESE CLOUDS IS JUST NORTH OF THE MO/AR BORDER...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. DSA
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
