FXAK69 PAFG 020956
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1256 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF 990 MB LOW
ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WED AFTERNOON...LIFTING OUT TO
NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND BY THU AFTERNOON. ALOFT...ASSOCIATED IMPULSE
NEAR THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...DEEPENING
TO A CLOSED LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY LATE
WED NIGHT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF 30-40 MPH WEST WINDS OVER ZONE 204
AND PKZ245 LATE WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS. WILL
POST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204 FOR RESTRICTED VISIBILITY
IN BLOWING SNOW.

UPPER LOW OVER SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY WED...THEN LIFT OUT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
AK WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING.

982 MB LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA
BY THU MORNING FILLING TO 1000 MB. TIGHT PINCH IN THE SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE FIELD WILL PERSIST OVER PKZ210/PKZ220/AKZ213 AS THE LOW 
MOVES NORTH AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
RUSSIA. BRISK NORTH WINDS AND LOW VISIBILITY AT TIMES IN SNOW/SNOW 
SHOWERS PERSISTING IN AKZ213/PKZ210/PKZ220 THROUGH WED NIGHT.
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST/WESTERN 
AND CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THU WITH THIS SURFACE LOW AND THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK...STRONG UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH GULF COAST BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD INTO CHUKOTKA. 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS 40-50 DAM ABOVE
NORMAL...APPROACHING OR POSSIBLY EXCEEDING RECORD VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. THE UPPER HIGH
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWEST TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA DURING
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS DROPPING SOME BUT
STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. CURRENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS AGREE WELL ON THE
UPPER HIGH POSITION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD...COLDER
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR/EASTERN ARCTIC.

.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ213.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.
&&

$$

RF DEC 09