FXUS63 KMPX 110542
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

A RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE PD. PRESSURE
FALLS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND WESTERN MN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...LEADING TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CHANCE OVERNIGHT
THAT PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS COULD PASS BY ANY OF THE TAF SITES
UNDER THE ARCTIC HIGH. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KAXN...MAINLY CLR OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 035
IN THE MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CEILINGS
LIFTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO 100 OR HIGHER. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT BACKING TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSTC...MAINLY CLR OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 040 BY
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CEILINGS
LIFTING IN THE EVENING TO 100 OR HIGHER. WEST WINDS 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT BACKING TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO AROUND 
10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

KRWF...SCT VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY WITH CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AT OR ABOVE 100 LATE IN THE DAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
BACKING TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...MAINLY CLR OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 100 EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT. WEST WINDS
NEAR 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BACKING TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS.

KRNH...MAINLY CLR OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 100 EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
BACKING TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

KEAU...MAINLY CLR OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 100 EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
BACKING TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009/

THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL START TO RETREAT NORTH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER 
AIRFLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE IN RESPONSE TO A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE 
TROUGHS MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN AND 
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  STILL ANOTHER COLD DAY ON 
FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO 
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR 
SLOWLY WARMING BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. 

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SPLIT FLOW OVER 
NORTH AMERICA. BOTH THE LATEST GFS90 AND ECMWF KEEPS THE NEXT SURGE 
OF ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP OVER CANADA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH 
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY. SO IN THE 
MEANTIME...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 
TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. 

LONG RANGE...WENT BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES 
MODERATING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
BROAD NORTHWEST AIRFLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH 
THE DURATION.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

RAH/BAP/JVM