FXUS65 KVEF 291152
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
352 AM PST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN SAN 
BERNARDINO CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY ARIZONA MAINLY THIS 
MORNING BEFORE DRYING OCCURS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES 
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH 
WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DOWN THE OWENS VALLEY AND THE COLORADO 
RIVER VALLEY TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY 
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS LAST OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN 
CLARK COUNTY DRIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. 
BASED ON THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY THIS AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION 
WILL STAY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-15 AS IT WORKS SOUTH TOWARD 
I-40...TWENTYNINE PALMS AND YUCCA VALLEY. WILL ALLOW OUR WINTER 
WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL 
BE MINIMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON...IF THERE ARE ANY 
SHOWERS LEFT THEY WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40 AND CONFINED TO SOUTHERN 
MOHAVE COUNTY. AREA WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT 
THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTH/SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO 
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY DOWN THE OWENS VALLEY AND 
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. GRADIENT LINGERS INTO MONDAY FOR ANOTHER 
ROUND OF NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...STILL WILDLY DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT 
WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO HAVE RIDGE OVER AREA AND THEN A 
MINOR WAVE MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY THURSDAY. IT IS ON FRIDAY ONWARDS 
THAT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES APPEAR. ECMWF KEEPS RIDGE OVER AREA 
WITH THE TOP BEING FLATTENED BY A WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTH OF CWA  
WHILE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS THE BEGINNING OF A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING 
INTO HE PACNW AND THEN OVER NORTHERN NEVADA BY LATE SATURDAY. GEM 
FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN. HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PRETTY 
MUCH INTACT IN HAVING A DRY FORECAST WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER NEXT 
WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN 
WHATEVER SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT.  
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT KLAS WILL 
DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER AS UPPER LOW SOUTH OF 
NEVADA MOVES AWAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH 
TO NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON. WIND FORECAST NOT ALL THAT FIRM IN 
TIMING AND SPEED IN 12Z TAF. AFTER SUNDAY LOOK FOR A FEW DAYS OF 
GOOD WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA....BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE WRAPPED AROUND AN UPPER 
LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON 
AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL RUN 6-9K AGL 
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND 
WESTERN ARIZONA, WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH FOR THE 
REST OF TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERAL 10-12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN 
RESTRICTED TERRAIN. CLOUDS AND WINDS AREAWIDE WILL BE GREATLY 
REDUCED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

PIERCE/JACQUES

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS