FXUS63 KGRB 282055
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
255 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DEPICTING A LIGHT BAND OF PRECIPITATION
TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH OF A WAUSAU TO
STURGEON BAY LINE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES. OVER THE NORTH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LAKE TO
850MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE STEEPEN TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VERDAT INDICATED THE
SREF WAS DOING BEST AND WAS FOLLOWED FOR BOTH PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...MAIN FCST
CONCERNS INCLUDE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PCPN TRENDS ARRIVING
DURING THE THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A S/W TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SUNDAY EVG...BRINGING A FEW
FLURRIES TO GRB CWA. LLVL WINDS WILL INITALLY BE NW EARLY...SO
SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE PSBL IN VILAS COUNTY DURING THE EVG. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN LATE SUN NGT INTO MONDAY MORNING...
THE LFQ OF A 130 KT JET STREAK WILL BRING A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE
ACROSS N WI...WHERE 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM WILL BE
PRESENT...AND THE DEEPEST SATURATION IS ANTICIPATED. THERE ARE
SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO IT IS PSBL
THAT SOME PCPN WILL LINGER IN FAR NE WI EARLY MONDAY EVG. WILL
LEAVE THE MONDAY NIGHT FCST DRY FOR NOW...AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND FOR TIMING.

ON TUESDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MIXING THROUGH 925-900 MB SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...SO VERY MILD TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE LATER PERIODS...HPC FAVORED USING A BLEND OF
ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS SUPPORTS A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER
THE WSTRN GREAT LKS RGN...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SCT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY EVENING...
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR (H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -10 TO -14 C) ARRIVING
BY WEDS NGT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT DURING THE PERIOD...CLOSER
TO HPC/12Z MEX GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE A BIG CHANGE FROM
RECENT WEEKS...TEMPS WILL REALLY JUST SETTLE CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR
EARLY DECEMBER.

NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG STORMS DURING THE PERIOD...AS THE PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTIZED PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN OUR VCNTY. WITH ONLY THE MOISTURE
STARVED NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF IMPACTING THE RGN...MOST OF THE
FA SHOULD ONLY SEE SCT LGT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR LK-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NC WI...ESP VILAS COUNTY...
DURING THE WEDS NGT INTO THURSDAY PERIOD AS LLVL WINDS BRIEFLY
BECOME FAVORABLE (NNW DIRECTION) AND LK-H8 DELTA-T'S INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 C. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 50 PERCENT FOR VILAS COUNTY
DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...AS
ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR AS A S/W TROF SWINGS THROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THEN
LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO CEILINGS. OVER THE NORTH...
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A MARINETTE
TO WAUSAU LINE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN 
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY NORTH OF 
A TOMAHAWK TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...FLURRIES OR EVEN SOME SPRINKLES
IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
ECKBERG/KIECKBUSCH