FXUS62 KCAE 072355
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
655 PM EST MON DEC 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE MID-WEST WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST...AREA STILL HAS
WEAK WEDGE FLOW. THIS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PROVIDING SOME CLOUD COVER AT TIMES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS SHOULD RESTRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL WEDGE FLOW
DURING THE DAY. WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A COASTAL FRONT FORECAST TO SETUP EAST OF
CWA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-WEST IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WHAT THIS DOES FOR OUR AREA IS BEGIN SOME GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE WARM FRONT LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE WARM FRONT
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL FORECAST TO FALL OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. MODELS DO SHOW THAT
MUCH OF THE PRECIP IS TRENDING TO FALL MORE ACROSS THE
UPSTATE...BUT THE CWA SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY GONE DRY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN BEGAN TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. CATEGORICAL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY MOST AREAS...AND THEN DROP TO LIKELY/CHANCE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE AT
THIS TIME. FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN WEDGE INTO THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH MORE ISENTROPIC LIFT SETTING UP BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE\CHANCE OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE A MIXTURE
OF PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE STILL
NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER IT MAY BEAR WATCHING IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS TO SEE HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ERODED AT AGS/DNL BUT REMAIN
AT CAE/CUB/OGB. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 01Z CAE/CUB AND
BY 03Z OGB...AS ALL TERMINALS REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS...ISENTROPIC LIFTING DEVELOPS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS. 2500FT CEILINGS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT
AGS/OGB/DNL BY 15-16Z AND CAE/CUB BY 18-19Z. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 21Z WHEN WARM ADVECTION ABOVE A DEVELOPING
WEDGE BEGINS IN EARNEST. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR
AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5
KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ONCE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HC
