FXUS63 KGRB 092108
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
308 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE AFFECTS OF INTENSE WINTER
STORM CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT ENDING THE BLIZZARD HEADLINE AND WINTER STORM WARNING AT
ROUTINE ZONE ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE BEEN MONITORING VSBYS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWEST VSBYS REMAIN OVER THE
OPEN AREAS OF SRN MN AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BEST
SURFACE PRESSURE CHANGE COUPLET EXTENDS FROM EASTERN IA TO UPPER
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE CRITERIA FOR A BLOWING SNOW HEADLINE OF 1/2
MILE VSBYS ALSO NOT BEING MET AS WELL SO WILL JUST END ALL
HEADLINES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LES ACTIVITY OVER VILAS COUNTY.
FOR LAKE SHORE COUNTIES WILL LOWER HEADLINE TO SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW DUE TO LINGERING SNOW AS PER RADAR AND POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS.
EVENING SHIFT MAY WANT TO END EARLIER THAN THE MIDNIGHT ENDING AT
THIS TIME. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD SURGE OF
AIR. WILL ISSUE A WC ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WI DUE TO COMBO OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IN THE OPEN AREAS AND
TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR ZERO. IT WILL BE CLOSE BUT BEING THE FIRST
WIND CHILL EVENT OR NEAR EVENT OF THE SEASON WILL ISSUE IT.
TEMPS WILL NOT RESPOND MUCH ON THURSDAY DUE TO ONGOING CAA. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE DEFORMATION AREA MAY BE SLOW TO DEPART LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND IN ADDITION MID RH IS ALREADY INCREASING
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAST WEST FLOW. USUALLY MODELS OVERDUE
CLOUD COVERAGE IN CAA PATTERNS...BUT NOT SURE THIS IS THE CASE
THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES
AS IT PASS THROUGH THE AREA. DID ADD FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ATTENTION TURNS TO LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND WOULD BRING AN ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE 00Z CANADIAN
MODEL RUN LAST NIGHT HAD A WEAK FEATURE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...
BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE 12Z RUN THIS MORNING. THE GFS HAS A WEAKER
SYSTEM...BUT PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH SUCH DIFFERENCES...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE
NEXT INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF. PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT OUT THE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AND WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ030-
031-035>038-045-048-049.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ005.
&&
$$
TDH/ECKBERG
