FXUS63 KICT 150326
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
926 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009
.UPDATE...
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRANSVERSING THROUGH SOUTHERN COLORADO AND
NEW MEXICO. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...WE ARE SEEING SOME CIRRUS STREAM
THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE ARE
CONTINUING TO SEE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DROP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO NOSE DIVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THE LONGEST WHICH MAY RESTRICT TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...THIS CIRRUS SHIELD MAY MOVE OUT OF THAT AREA
BY DAYBREAK AND CAUSE TEMPERATURES DROP A BIT MORE. AS A
RESULT...WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
COX
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP WAS ALSO SHOWING
MORE STRATUS DECKS AROUND 1500-2000FT FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE THETA SURFACES RISING AND NEARLY
SATURATED SOUNDINGS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT...THE
CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE TRICKY THIS EVENING...SINCE THERE WILL BE A
BATTLE BETWEEN THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND RISING THETA SURFACES
AROUND 270K. WE DID NOT KEEP THE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR NOW.
COX
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CURRENT COLD BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR...THEN
ANOTHER BLAST LATER IN THE WEEK.
TONIGHT:
STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
.WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS HEADED OUR WAY. THIS ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO DROP TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN CENTRAL KS WHERE
CURRENT SNOW PACK IS STILL AROUND 4 INCHES. SOME CONCERN ON HOW COLD
THE TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY GET AS SHORT TERM MODELS NOT HANDLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER VERY WELL TONIGHT. NAM ISNT AS
BULLISH WITH CLOUD COVER THAN THE GFS...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT BETTER
WITH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SO PREFER
TO GO A LITTLE BELOW NAM GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS...GIVEN CURRENT
TEMPS OVER NEBRASKA WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.
TUE-THU:
THIS COLD BLAST WILL BE SHORTER LIVED THAN THE PREVIOUS COLD AIR
LAST WEEK...AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHUNTING OFF THE EAST RATHER QUICKLY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BOTH
TUE AND WED. EVEN WITH THIS SAID...PREFER TO STAY COOLER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST...GIVEN MODEL HANDLING OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR...AS WARM AIR
JUST OFF THE SURFACE GETS UNDER WAY.
SOME QUESTION ON WHAT TO DO WITH TEMPS ON THU..AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THU AFTERNOON INTO THU
NIGHT. PREFER TO GO WARMER THAN THE NAM BUT COOLER THAN THE GFS FOR
THIS DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WHERE LINGERING EFFECTS OF
THE SNOW COVER WILL STILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME.
KETCHAM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL LATER BE AMPLIFIED BY A RIDGE IN
THE WEST DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AS WELL A
STRONG TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN US SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED
THEN THE ECMWF AS IT KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL RESULT
BACK TO ZONAL FLOW KEEPING THE FORECAST MILD AND DRY. DECIDED TO
STAY WITH THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TO EASTERN CANADA...CREATING NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS NORTHERLY FLOW A STRONG
POLAR AIRMASS WILL DROP ACROSS KANSAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BESIDES TEMPERATURES...THE OTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE PRECIP
AND TYPE OF PRECIP. AGAIN STAYED WITH THE ECMWF AND INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND BECAUSE OF THE COLDER TEMPS KEPT PRECIP TYPE
TO SNOW. THIS AGREES WITH THE ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE PLUME
DIAGRAMS.
DUNTEN
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOWER CIGS TODAY.
COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND IS NOW LOCATED
FROM SOUTHERN MO TO NEAR THE RED RIVER. THE MVFR CIGS HAVE STARTED
TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND AM EXPECTING THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE DIDN'T HIT THE LOWER CIGS TOO HARD WITH
JUST A TEMPO AT MOST SPOTS FOR NOW. AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT BY
21-23Z MOST OF THE BKN CIGS WILL BE GONE. NORTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 8 28 16 44 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 4 21 16 44 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 4 24 16 43 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 6 27 17 44 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 9 31 17 46 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL -3 15 10 42 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 1 17 13 44 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 2 15 12 42 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 3 18 12 43 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 10 31 17 47 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 9 28 15 45 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 8 26 14 45 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 10 30 16 46 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
