FXUS61 KLWX 270908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
408 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR CAPE COD WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE EAST COAST MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

I HV TO SAY - THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST DIVERSE SET OF WX IN A WK OF
MIDSHIFTS I'VE SEEN IN AWHILE. DENSE FOG..WIND..SNOW..STRONG GUSTY
RW...AND THAT JUST IN THE PAST 24 HRS.

WE'VE ISSUED AN SMW FOR THE GUSTY WINDS IN THE LOWER PTMC/BAY. UP
TO G38 IN THE PAST HR.

FINAL BAND OF RW NOW MOVG E OF I-95. AFTR SUNRISE W/ COLDER AIR
MOVG INTO THE RGN INSTABILITY RW PSBL ACROSS THE NRN SXN OF THE
CWA. A CHECK OF THE MD CHART CAMERAS SHOW THAT SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW
TO DVLP IN GARRETT CO...BUT HAS FINALLY BEGUN ARND 3:30. THIS
SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY...IF IT HASN'T ALREADY...IN THE WRN
HIGHLANDS AND CONT THRU THE DAY. 2-4" SEEM LKLY. ADVSRY WL RMNS AS
IS.

A BRZY DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA TDA. SFC ANLYS REVEALS THE "CLASSIC
WIND PRES PATTERN" FOR THE MID ATLC.

TEMPS IN THE 40S...PSBLY L50 IN THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES BLDG OVR THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING BY
MDNGT. BLV BY MRNG SAT SKIES SHOULD BE CLRG. LOWS RANGE FM M20S
MTNS TO U30S BY THE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND WHILE SFC HIPRES BUILDS 
IN FROM THE GULF STATES...RESULTING IN DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS. 
MAX TEMPS SAT RANGING FROM THE U40S TO M50S AND SUN FROM THE M50S TO 
L60S.

NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU 
QUICKLY ERY NEXT WEEK WITH PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN OVER THE CONUS 
CONTINUING THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PREFERRED A BLEND 
BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION REGARDING FROPA 
SOMETIME MON/MON NGT. AFTER HIPRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE...LONG 
RANGE MODELS HINT AT A STORM SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPIC JET 
STREAM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE NEWD TOWARDS THE MID 
ATLANTIC REGION WED INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

GUSTY NW WINDS WL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TDA. VFR SKIES AT ALL SITES TDA/TNGT.

WNW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RELAX SAT BUT REMAIN GUSTY WITH WINDS
15-20 KT AND A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MRNG. VFR CONDITIONS THRU
ERY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MON/MON NGT AS
COLD FRONT PASSES THRU MON NGT. HIPRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT TUE/ERY WED.

&&

.MARINE...

THE COMBO OF LOW TO THE NE/HIGH PRES TO THE SW HAS CREATED A
STRONG PRES GRAD. A GALE WRNG EXISTS TDA FOR THE BAY/LWR
PTMC..SCA FOR UPPER PTMC...DIMINISHING TNGT BUT WINDS RMNG AT SCA LVLS.

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS SAT BEFORE RELAXING 
SAT EVNG INTO SUN AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES. HAVE ACCORDINGLY EXTENDED HEADLINES TO KEEP SCA ACROSS 
ALL MARINE ZONES THRU 23Z SAT. GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE 
OVER THE MD CHSPK BAY SAT MRNG.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ021.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ054-501-
     503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR 
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR 
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/JRK