FXUS63 KGID 082118
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
318 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT. THE ONGOING WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CALLS TO AREA COUNTIES
INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
SO FAR...WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 10 INCHES BEING REPORTED
IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OVERALL...THINGS STILL APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK IN MOST SPOTS.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT IN TAKING
THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN
KANSAS QUICKLY EAST TONIGHT. MODEL GENERATED VERTICAL VELOCITIES
SHOW THE LIFT QUICKLY SHUTTING DOWN IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER LATE THIS
EVENING...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION PAST THIS
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...BUT
SHOW A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE GRIDS. IN
REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT...THINK THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH AROUND 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
EAST...AND AN INCH OR LESS IN THE WEST. THIS WILL STILL KEEP STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS IN THE 12-15 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA...TO 6 TO 8 INCHES IN THE NORTH AND WEST. WINDS
WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
EXPECTED. HAD A LONG DEBATE IN THE OFFICE ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT TO
UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IN SOME AREAS. THE INCREASING WINDS
AND FAIRLY LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW ON THE GROUND WOULD BE A GOOD ARGUMENT
FOR AN UPGRADE...BUT THE FACT THAT THE SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING
DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD ANY LESS THAN 1/4SM
VISIBILITIES WILL BE DUE TO SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. IN THE END...DECIDED
TO STAY WITH THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND PASS ALONG OUR CONCERNS TO
THE NEXT SHIFT. IF IT LOOKS LIKE THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW BECOME BAD ENOUGH...LONG ENOUGH...THEY CAN EASILY
UPGRADE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THE NEAR BLIZZARD/NEAR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS WORDING HARD IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING PRODUCTS.
ANOTHER ELEMENT TO THE WINTER STORM WILL BE BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS
OF 20 TO 30 BELOW WHICH WILL BE AT THEIR COLDEST DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM...12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THE SNOW SHOULD BE DONE FALLING WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT EXPECT THAT AS
THE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE MORNING THAT THERE MAY BE A
FEW AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SOME BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THAT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL OFF TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO BE FAIRLY
STRONG INTO THE MORNING HOURS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DECREASE TO -20
TO -25 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE COLD WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH LINGERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE COLD ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION ON AND OFF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES AT
850MB WARM UP SOME MORE. STILL DO NOT EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A
LOT OF WARM AIR...BUT IT WILL BE BETTER.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION
THERE IS WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
EXPECT THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW AS THIS MOVES THROUGH. THE GFS GIVES A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR QPF THAN THE ECMWF OR
CANADIAN BUT THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.
DESPITE WARM ADVECTION THE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
COOL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION AGAIN. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...BUT THIS
SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/
AVIATION...18Z TAF. SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KGRI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN AT 1/2SM OR BELOW MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END THIS EVENING...BUT WITH WINDS
INCREASING HAVE KEPT REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. ITS
HARD TO SAY WHEN THE BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH...BUT WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL TRY TO IMPROVE THEM
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
