FXUS64 KLIX 261022
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
422 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009
.SHORT TERM...
FIRST SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE A LOT OF NOISE. A LIGHT COLD
RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL ON
SUN AS WELL.
WE THEN FAST FORWARD TO TUE EVENING. A SFC LOW DEVELOPS NEAR BRN
THEN MOVES NE TO THE SE LA COAST BY WED BRINGING AT FIRST SOME
LIGHT COLD RAIN. THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL BRING IN A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP DRY AIR SURGE
FROM THE WEST. THE DEEP DRY AIR WILL ACT LIKE A WALL CAUSING THE
MOISTURE TO BE FORCED UPWARD VERY QUICKLY WED AFTERNOON THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF WED NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO BREAK OUT OVER A SECTION OF SE LA CLOSE TO THE SFC
LOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME STRONG WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. SO THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO MAJOR
THINGS TO LOOK AT. FIRST WILL BE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND THE SECOND
IS STRONG GRADIENT WINDS. SEVERITY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE
ATTM. WILL BEGIN TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM FOR ITS HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA.
.LONG TERM...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STAYS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCAST PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 3KFT WILL BRING MOISTURE AND
CEILINGS...MAINLY ABOVE 8KFT AFTER 15Z THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
SCATTERED SHRA/-RA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE
MOSTLY LIGHT WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF BELOW VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. 22/TD
&&
.MARINE...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO REACH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL WATERS BELOW 29N
LATITUDE. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE STRONGER WINDS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS
TO EXERCISE CAUTION OR POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT BREAK FROM THE STRONGER WINDS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN THE NEXT STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS LIKELY TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND LOTS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MARINE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 22/TD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 54 33 57 31 / 0 10 10 0
BTR 56 36 58 33 / 0 20 10 0
MSY 55 43 56 39 / 0 40 20 0
GPT 54 38 57 34 / 0 20 20 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
