FXUS64 KOHX 250219
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
819 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009

.UPDATE...
WILL PUT RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES SW AS INDICATED BY LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND QPF FORECAST. REST OF FORECAST FINE. 
&&

MAG

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009/ 

UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION. 

AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVG N. SYS HEADING E. RAIN MOVING INTO W MID TN 
EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN ONSET 03Z KBNA AND 06Z KCSV. MAINLY MVFR 
CIGS/VIS AT THIS POINT. 

THERE IS A CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN N MS...AND IT 
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SW MID TN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODERATE TO 
HEAVY RAIN WITH IT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES A GOOD JOB AT PLACING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW 
WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND BRING A COLD 
FRONT THOUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR THE FCST...SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT 
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...A 
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS 
WITH SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.

OTW...THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE WIND SPEEDS. GRADIENT TO 
TIGHTEN UP IN EARNEST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850 MB JET 
NEAR 70 KTS WILL LUCKILY REMAIN UNTAPPED AS SFC INSTABILITIES ARE 
WEAK. NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING AND WILL
EXTEND IT THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY. WINDS WILL STILL BE IN THE 15-25
MPH RANGE ON FRIDAY BUT NO ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR THAT MAGNITUDE.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FRI NT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE 
SAT AND SAT NT.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...MAV NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE UNTIL PERIOD 4.
A WARMUP TO 50 DEGREES ON SATURDAY LOOKS UNLIKELY(850 MB TEMPS OF 
-7C) SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MET. 

IN THE EXT FCST...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWING 
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NT. THIS COULD SPAWN A FEW FLURRIES AS THE 
CLOSED LOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH. STORM SYSTEM MAY FROM IN THE 
NORTHERN GULF BY MID WEEK. MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT STAYS SUPPRESSED 
TO THE SOUTH SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SLT CHC OF SHOWERS WED/SNOW 
SHOWERS WED NT. OTW...BELOW AVG DAYTIME HIGHS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR TNZ005>011-022>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

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