FXUS63 KFGF 041551
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
951 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TEMPS. TEMPS ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 7 DEGREES COLDER THAN ANY MODEL HAS TODAY...AND WILL
NEED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS TODAY FOR MAINLY THE DEEPER SNOW COVERED
AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW MAINLY EAST OF
THE VALLEY WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TODAY...WITH
FLURRIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE REST OF THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS WILL AGAIN BE TRICKY WITH WIDE VARIANCE IN CIGS ACROSS FA.
DO EXPECT CLEARING TO PUSH INTO AREAS WEST OF VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS/VSBY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OVER FA TODAY. AS IT DOES 
DRYING COLUMN REFLECTED BY SKC INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SHIFTS EAST 
REACHING VALLEY REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL 
WITH RH TRENDS BUT BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS FEEL NAM MAY HAVE 
BETTER HANDLE ON CLEARING TREND TODAY AS THICKER CLOUDS IN S MB TO 
DROP SOUTHWARD AT LEAST INTO VALLEY REGION. EXPECT AREAS WEST OF THE 
VALLEY TO GET SOLAR BY AFTERNOON. EAST OF VALLEY LIKELY TO SEE 
CLOUDS MOST OF DAY WITH VALLEY REGION IN BETWEEN AND THE MAIN CLOUD 
TREND CHALLENGE. WILL BRING LEADING EDGE OF CLEARING TO THE RIVER BY 
LATE IN THE DAY AND DAY SHIFT CAN ADJUST. SNOW FALL LINING UP PRETTY 
WELL WITH ENHANCED CLOUDS AND WILL KEEP SOME SORT OF SNOW MENTION 
ACROSS FA DRYING WESTERN FA THIS AFTERNOON AS CLEARING MOVES IN. 
THERMAL ADVECTION NEUTRAL TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE 
RECOVERY ACROSS THE EAST. EVEN FARTHER WEST EXPECTING TO SEE SOME 
SUN WITH FAIRLY SOLID SNOW COVER NOT SURE HOW MUCH HELP LOW SUN 
ANGLE SOLAR WILL HELP. OVERALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM TOO 
FAR OFF AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW. 

CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. 
DOES LOOK LIKE EASTERN FA WILL SEE MORE PRONOUNCED CLOUD COVER WITH 
WESTERN FA LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY CLEAR AT LEAST FOR A WHILE WITH 
VALLEY REGION AGAIN PROBLEM AREA. WITH WEAK MIXING ANY CLEAR SPOTS 
WILL QUICKLY DROP. WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGES OTHER THAN TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NW FA 
WITH BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CLEAR SKIES. 

SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH ORGANIZES ACROSS NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH 
SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTING OVER OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY 
PCPN TO OUR WEST. THERMAL ADVECTION AGAIN NEUTRAL SO TEMPERATURES 
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SUNDAY BUT MODELS TRENDING 
WITH MORE DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE OVER FA. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE 
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO PULL CHANCES.

BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND CONTINUED COLD WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER FA. MODELS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH MIDWEEK STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WILL INTRODUCE 
LOW POPS ACROSS SE HALF OF FA WHICH COULD END UP ON OUTER FRINGE OF 
SNOW SHIELD.    

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
DK