FXUS63 KJKL 251905 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/
WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO HANDLE THE EXPIRING HIGH WIND WARNING
IN OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE 850 MB JET
STREAK IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST LESSENING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS OVER
OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER GRADIENT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG
WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS UP TO
50 MPH TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THESE COUNTIES. ACCORDINGLY...
THE EXPIRING WARNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 4
PM EST. UPDATES WILL BE OUT AROUND THE TOP OF THE HOUR.
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.
A VERY POTENT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
VAD IS SHOWING SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE WINDS. 50 KNOT WINDS WERE JUST 2K
FT AGL AND 80 KTS AT 5K AGL. SINCE THIS SE FLOW IS PERPENDICULAR TO
THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE VA AND TN BORDERS...THE PREVIOUS SHIFT PUT
OUT A HIGH WIND WARNING. THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SITUATION IS FAVORABLE
FOR GRAVITY WAVES TO BRING THOSE HIGHER GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
IT IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT WHERE THIS MIGHT HAPPEN...SO THE
WARNING IS FOR THE FOUR COUNTIES ALONG THE BORDER. ALREADY SEE THE GUSTS
PICKING UP ACROSS THE AREA. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE SOME MORE TREES DOWN
FROM THIS STORM...EVEN WITH 30 TO 45 MPH GUSTS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
MORE PROBLEMS WITH POWER OUTAGES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DRY SLOT WILL
DOMINATE UNTIL THE WRAP AROUND FINALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING OFF TO THE NE BY
TUESDAY AND SOME RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. JUST TWEAKED
THE TEMPS A LITTLE BASED ON MODEL AND MOS TRENDS.
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...THE RIDGE WILL
REPOSITION ITSELF OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFTS THE TROUGH TO THE
CENTRAL US AND PUTS KY IN A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...BUT REALLY START TO DIVERGE ON THURSDAY IN THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS COULD MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE TO TIMING OF ANY SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD. I PREFER ED
THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND WENT WITH IT FOR THE TIMING IN DAY 7. FOR
TEMPS..JUST NUDGED THEM TOWARD THE GRIDDED MOS.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS IS FOUND OVER KENTUCKY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OUT OF OUR EAST EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE LEVEL
OF THESE CLOUDS ARE VARYING BETWEEN MVRF AND VFR. ACCORDINGLY...
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS THROUGH 21Z FOR THE LOZ AND SME
SITES. ALSO FROM THESE LOWER CLOUDS...A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT DO NOT FORESEE ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS.
FOLLOWING THIS...EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS TO ERODE AND LEAVE BEHIND A
LOW VFR CIG INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION
ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING LEAVING
BEHIND JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS AT AROUND THE MVFR/VFR LINE...INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING INTO THE EVENING.
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BECOMING GUSTY
AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. HOWEVER...THIS IS A FAR CRY FROM THE WINDS OF
THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ087-088-118-
120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJ/GREIF
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...GREIF
