FXUS63 KLMK 101923
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
223 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
REMAINING STRATO-CU AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE CWA...AND SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WEST WINDS REMAIN IN ITS WAKE.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY BEEN ABLE TO REACH
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DOWN SOUTH. WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS...WIND
CHILL READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL APPROACH AND
OUR WINDS WILL START TO WANE AND BACK A LITTLE TOWARD SUNRISE. IT
WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...BUT AN UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS THEY
COULD. THINK MET/MAV MOS IS GENERALLY TOO HIGH THOUGH SO WILL BLEND
RAW MODEL TEMPS WITH ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE AND GO FOR LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS WEST TO THE MID TEENS EAST. LOW TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS.
DECENT SWRLY FLOW AND WARM-AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A NICE
DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. OTHER THAN THE MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NE TO AROUND 40 SW. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AT 5-10MPH.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES. A SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF STATES
SAT/SUN KICKING UP MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE
BEST TIME FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE SAT NIGHT AND HAVE UPPED POPS IN THIS
TIME RANGE. HAVE TWEAKED PRECIP TIMING A BIT STARTING WITH 20 POPS
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...MAXING AT 50 POPS SAT NIGHT...THEN DECLINING POPS EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENDING BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
30S-LOWER 40S FOR SATURDAY AND MID 40S FOR SUNDAY FOR HIGHS. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER 30S SAT NIGHT...AND
UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT/S LOWS WILL BE
REACHED NEAR MIDNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WILL START THEREAFTER CAUSING
TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
MONDAY - THURSDAY...
HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES FOR THE MON/TUES SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST
MATCHES MODEL GUIDANCE WELL FOR RAIN STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S.
THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS BEHIND THIS WEATHER SYSTEM AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY INCONSISTENT AS TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL
ENTER THE CONUS. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BOTH TRENDED COOLER WITH
RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS.
THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED TEMPS WED-THURS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS LAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AS TEMPS MAY NEED TRENDED DOWN FURTHER.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
STRATO-CU AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FINALLY MOVING EAST OF ALL 3 TERMINAL
SITES. REMAINING SKIES OVER LEX SHOULD GO SCT SOON...SO WILL HAVE
FEW OR SKC AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT THOUGH...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS THROUGH 00Z...AND AS HIGH AS 20 KTS THROUGH
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...LOWERING OUR WINDS FINALLY.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AND WESTERLY AT SDF AND LEX...AND
VARIABLE AT BWG AFTER 12Z FRI. MAY INCLUDE SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS AT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 12Z FRI AS WELL.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........AL
LONG TERM.........AML
AVIATION..........AL
