FXUS63 KIWX 110914
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
414 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

.NEAR TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING

FOR TODAY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALREADY KICKED IN AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE STAYED IN THE LOWER TEENS FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING. THE WEAK RIDGE IS VISIBLE IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
HAS HELPED TO WEAKEN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES
AS EVIDENCED BY THE RADAR AND IR/FOG CHANNEL. OF CONCERN IS THE
SPEED MAX / JET SHOWING UP IN THE PROFILER ABOVE 700 MB. THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS UP IN OUR LAKE AREA...AND
LIKELY TO SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MIDDAY. 

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE AREA AGAIN SEES THE
INFLUENCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE HAVE KEPT THE
CHANCE OF SW-/ZR- IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO SATURATE THE AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON
MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE LONG TERM. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS 
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. NAM/WRF AND GFS INDICATE WEAK UPGLIDE ON 
ISENTROPIC SURFACES EARLY...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF CHANCE 
POPS SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS THE 
TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT AND THE CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AFTER 
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE RECENT HANDLING OF THIS LAST 
COLD EVENT...PREFER THE GFS OVER THE ECMWF. THE GFS HAS ALSO BEEN 
REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM FROM RUN TO RUN 
AND HAS BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER FROM RUN TO RUN. TEMPERATURES 
SHOULD TURN BITTERLY COLD AGAIN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN LARGE SNOWPACK UPSTREAM WITH LITTLE TO MODIFY THE 
UPSTREAM AIRMASS. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN TUESDAY...BUT GUT FEELING 
IS THAT THESE HIGHS TUESDAY AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE STILL TOO WARM. 
THE GFS BUFKIT PROVED EXCELLENT WITH THIS LAST EVENT...PREDICTING A 
HIGH OF ONLY 16F A WEEK BEFORE THIS LAST EVENT...SO HIGHS WEDNESDAY 
WILL LIKELY TO BE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LEWIS
NEAR TERM...LEWIS