FXUS62 KTBW 091500
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1000 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009

.UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY...WARM
AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. BAND OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE INTO THE NATURE COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY WEAKEN SOME AS THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
MOVE AWAY WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE BEST CHANCE OF SEE A SHOWER OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE WELL INLAND AND WILL LOWER POPS
TO 20 PERCENT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
REACHING THE TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND 12Z AND CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTH REACHING THE FORT MYERS AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ACTUALLY OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST BEFORE FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CENTRAL ZONES WILL SEE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH HIGHS OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING THEN
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON. 

OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL UPDATE
SHORTLY TO REMOVE PATCHY MORNING FOG FROM TODAY AND ADJUST POPS TO
20 PERCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA IS LIFTING AND 
DISSIPATING...BUT THE LOW CEILINGS BETWEEN 600-1000 FEET WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 16Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BY
MIDDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS 
WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF TPA/PIE/SRQ DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THURSDAY. PRESENT MARINE FORECAST LOOKS OK
SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR LATE MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  66  66  51 /  30  40  50  20 
FMY  84  70  80  58 /  10  20  40  20 
GIF  84  66  68  49 /  30  40  50  20 
SRQ  80  69  71  53 /  30  40  50  20 
BKV  81  62  62  44 /  40  40  50  20 
SPG  80  68  68  54 /  30  40  50  20 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/...69/CLOSE 
AVIATION...22/REYNES