FXUS64 KOUN 102122
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
322 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN OK WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER SOMEWHAT CHILLY MORNING FRIDAY...BUT A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING US OUT OF THE BASEMENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN CLOSELY FOLLOWED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING PRECIP TYPE FOR SATURDAY.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD BE GENERATED
VIA ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A LOW LEVEL HUMID BUT STABLE LAYER WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. THIS SPELLS WEAK LIFT AND LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF NORTHERN OK WHERE DEW POINTS MAY STILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S...BUT ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY
MIDDAY.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. THIS PERIOD WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS SOME FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. FOLLOWING THIS...IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE IN
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY. THE COLD AIR IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FROM NORTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INDICATIVE OF A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS. ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IN SUCH A POSITION THAT WE WOULD STILL BE COOLING
OFF QUITE A BIT. THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE COLD AIR DIRECTLY INTO
THE CWA. IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT WE WILL STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SNOW COVER TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY...FURTHER MAKING A CASE FOR A
COLD SOLUTION.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. BOTH
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN
LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH GRADUAL WARMING
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. GFS/ECMWF AGREE IN GENERAL ON A WESTERN US
RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK...LEAVING US
OPEN TO POSSIBLE FURTHER INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH.

TAYLOR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  20  42  31  50 /   0  10  10  20 
HOBART OK         20  43  31  55 /   0   0   0  10 
WICHITA FALLS TX  25  45  36  61 /   0  10  10  10 
GAGE OK           13  42  23  49 /   0   0   0  10 
PONCA CITY OK     19  44  26  43 /   0   0  10  20 
DURANT OK         26  42  37  51 /   0  10  20  20 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/03