FXUS64 KFWD 150302 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
902 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS...WHERE
SOME OVERRUNNING AND CLOUD COVER ARE PERSISTING AND HOLDING UP COLD
FRONT PUSH SOMEWHAT. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND ADD PATCHY FOG. ALSO RAISED TEMPS BACK TOWARD THE MID 40S...AS MAIN
CAA WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK DOWN THAT WAY. OTHERWISE...
FORECAST ON TRACK AND DON'T FORESEE ANY FUTURE UPDATES.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF PACKAGE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS BUT
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS ALREADY THROUGH THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AND WILL PASS THROUGH KACT BETWEEN 15/01-02Z.
WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SPEEDS MAY
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BUT WILL MONITOR THIS TREND UNTIL THE NEXT
TAF ISSUANCE.
A CLOUD DECK WITH BASES AROUND 060 IS MOVING NORTH AGAINST THE
FLOW OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. BROKEN SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT KACT THROUGH 15/06Z...AT WHICH TIME THE 850-700 MB FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AND HELP CLEAR THESE CLOUDS OUT. THIS BROKEN DECK OF
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX BY 15/01-02Z AND WILL
REMAIN UNTIL 04-05Z WHEN THE 850-700 MB MOVES THROUGH.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009/
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS SWITCHED THE WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS TO
THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ACTUAL FRONT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG A LINE NEAR PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE AS INDICATED BY
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
BE OUT OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING.
THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT...THE ELEVATED FRONT
WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH AND AT 6Z TONIGHT THE 850 FRONT
SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF WACO. AHEAD OF THE 850 FRONT...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL SURGE ON TOP OF THE SURFACE TO 850 FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND PROVIDE POCKETS OF WEAK LIFT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE SURFACE TO 850 MB LAYER AND
AM NOT EXPECTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF AN ATHENS
TO TEMPLE LINE AS THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL MUCH COOLER THAN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WACO HAS HIT 79 DEGREES TODAY WHICH IS ONE
DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1995. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT...HAVE A FREEZE NEAR THE RED
RIVER...LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 40S
IN THE SOUTH UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS. FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT...CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE.
THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS THERE ARE MAJOR
DISCREPANCIES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE
ALL CONSISTENT IN DROPPING A TROUGH DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGING FROM THERE ON. THE GFS
RETROGRADES THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US ON FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SEND A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE AIRMASS
MODIFYING BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING. THE ECMWF
RETROGRADES THE LOW BUT DEVELOPS A STRONG TROUGH FURTHER WEST
WHICH OPENS UP THE DOOR FOR BITTER COLD AIR WITH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND ONLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP...BUT UNDERCUT MEXMOS FOR TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED.
85/NH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 35 45 31 52 35 / 5 5 0 5 5
WACO, TX 40 47 32 52 35 / 10 5 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 32 45 29 50 33 / 10 5 0 5 10
DENTON, TX 31 43 27 52 33 / 5 5 0 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 31 45 27 50 32 / 5 5 0 5 5
DALLAS, TX 36 45 32 52 37 / 10 5 0 5 5
TERRELL, TX 36 47 31 52 35 / 10 5 0 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 38 49 33 52 37 / 10 5 0 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 41 48 34 53 37 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/05
