FXUS63 KLBF 300927
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
327 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE WEST ALOFT. SPLIT FLOW PERSISTS...WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER NW MEXICO IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
W TO NW WINDS ALLOWING THE RIVER VALLY TO COOL INTO THE
TEENS...ELSEWHERE HOLDING IN THE 20S. 

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY AS ONE FINAL PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED
BEFORE THINGS CHANGE TOMORROW. HIGHS PUSH INTO THE 50S AS 850MB
TEMPS UP ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES C FROM YESTERDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS SEEN
IN THE IR PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...HOWEVER
THEY HAVE BEEN ERODING AS THEY PUSH INTO DRIER AIR. DO EXPECT A
FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA DURING THE
DAY...HOWEVER STILL TO SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TOMORROW BEGINS THE CHANGE. MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING ISSUES...AND
HAVE BLENDED BETWEEN FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM...WHICH MATCHES
CLOSER TO THE SHREF GUIDANCE. STRONG BUT DRY ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS HAS MADE FORECASTING
HIGHS DIFFICULT. EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO SEE FALLING TEMPS FOR
THE AFTERNOON...SO HIGHS GREATLY DEPEND ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLDER AIR. MAIN SURFACE LOW/BETTER LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH...NEAR
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP TO THE WEST OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE
FOR LIGHT SNOW AS LATEST GFS/ECMWF HAVE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS THERE.
AT THIS POINT THINK SURFACE WILL BE TOO DRY TO OVERCOME AND HAVE
LEFT FORECAST DRY...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NORTH FLOW TO CONTINUE TO ALLOW ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH ONTO THE PLAINS. NO SNOW TO THE NORTH...WILL HELP
MODIFY THE AIR TO THE PLUS SIDE...AND SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO
REACH INTO THE 30S DURING THE DAY. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR
EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST RUN BRINGS A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT HOWEVER DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOW KEEP
PRECIP TO FLURRIES AT BEST. FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WILL MONITOR.
CLOUDS ARE A CONCERN...AS THEY COULD MAKE HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
30S DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE...OFTEN WILL SEE STRATUS HOLD ON
LONGER THAN EXPECTED...AND LATEST MEX GUIDANCE LEANS THIS WAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER GREATLY. GFS SUGGEST
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR TO HOLD TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...WHILE THE
ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE AND PUSHES TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD STEADY WITH GOING FORECAST SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND WINDS WILL
BE FROM 5 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST. 

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER