FXUS62 KTBW 110225
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
925 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN DIFFERENCE WAS TO SLOW THE
TEMPERATURE FALL SOMEWHAT DURING THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL 06Z.
CLOUDINESS AND LINGERING SHOWERS SEEM TO BE HOLDING TEMPS UP MORE
THAN FORECAST. RUC MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SO STUCK CLOSER TO THIS. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO MINS BUT OVERALL NO REAL CHANGE THERE AS UPPER 30S
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH. OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO 30 TO ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT CONTINUE TO LINGER THERE.
WIND SHIFT AND DRIER AIR HAS CLEARED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN A SHALLOW LAYER AROUND 950 MB
APPEARS TO CORRESPOND WELL TO THE ONGOING SHOWERS. AFTER 06Z THIS
BAND WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK SHOWERS BEHIND A SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT S
TOWARDS FMY AND RSW. MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO MOVE EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS SO WILL MAINTAIN VCSH THROUGH 6Z FOR FMY AND RSW.
ELSEWHERE...DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY FILTERING SWD BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE BKN DECKS AROUND 3KFT.
&&
.MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE TONIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009/
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...FRONT REMAINS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ON SUNDAY
WITH STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THIS FRONT
THEN DECAYS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT
THIS NEXT FRONT TO EXIT TO THE SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRIER AIR BRINGING AN END
TO THE PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT BEGIN TO TREND TOWARD NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
SECOND FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 50 66 58 78 / 10 30 40 50
FMY 59 76 61 82 / 30 30 30 40
GIF 51 66 58 80 / 10 30 40 50
SRQ 55 70 59 79 / 30 30 40 50
BKV 42 60 55 79 / 10 30 40 60
SPG 54 66 60 77 / 10 30 40 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...35/JOHNSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...20/BARRON
