FXUS63 KUNR 252115
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
215 PM MST WED NOV 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE BUILDING OVER 
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AS THIS MORNING/S LOW DEEPENS OVER THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW CLOUDS STREAMING 
SOUTHWARD FROM MONTANA...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. 
CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AND WILL NOT 
MAKE ANY CHANGES. 

ALL MODELS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE RATHER SIMILAR AND 
AGREE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...THEREFORE I SEE NO GREAT NEED FOR 
ANY MAJOR CHANGES. 

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE 
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO 
WARM QUITE NICELY ON THANKSGIVING AND BLACK FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT 
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. RIGHT 
NOW MODEL TIMING IS ALL VERY SIMILAR AND IS DEPICTED IN THE CURRENT 
FORECAST VERY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED. 

EXTENDED...POSITIVELY TILTED PACIFIC TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO WESTERN 
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TROF AXIS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST ON 
SUNDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK 
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSING OF THE 
TROF...DROPPING TO NEAR AVERAGE BY SUNDAY. A BRIEF WARM UP ON MONDAY 
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONGER TROF FOR TUESDAY. COOL AND 
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
 
&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISHING LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$