FXHW60 PHFO 261935
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST THU NOV 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE 
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE WINDS 
FAVOR THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...AND MAY REACH THE LEE AREAS 
ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF KAUAI 
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH...WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR KAUAI THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN 
CONTINUES TO AFFECT KAUAI AT THIS HOUR...AND THUS A FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT ISLAND THIS MORNING. MAY HAVE TO 
EXTEND THE WARNING IF THE CONDITIONS DO NOT IMPROVE BY LATE THIS 
MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST AND FORECAST CHARTS 
INDICATE IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE STILL COVERS SCENARIO OKAY...THOUGH IT WILL 
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE REST OF THE ISLANDS FLARES WEATHERWISE 
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND 
WEAKENS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IS JUST EAST OF THE 
ISLANDS AND WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO EXPECT 
MORE PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE REST OF ISLANDS IN THE COMING 
HOURS...AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS EMBEDDED. DO 
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO TRAVERSE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SMALLER 
ISLANDS...THUS LETS HOPE THE IMPACT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE 
LESSEN.

FORECAST CHARTS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH THE 
ISLANDS SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE 
ISLANDS. MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED SHOWERS BY THEN...THOUGH 
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BE FAR SOUTH ENOUGH TO HAVE 
LESSEN EFFECT ON THE ISLAND WEATHER.

WEATHER PATTERN AT THE SURFACE IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...WITH HIGHS AND 
LOWS RACING ACROSS THE PACIFIC. THE CURRENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR 
SO...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE 
ISLANDS BY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE ISLANDS...AS 
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS 
THE TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY FRIDAY...AND INCREASE 
AGAIN BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS NEXT HIGH WILL MOVE TO FAR 
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS AND WEAKEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TRADE 
WINDS WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY THEN AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL HAS SUBSIDED ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE 
HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE NORTHERN 
ISLANDS IS CANCELLED. SURF HEIGHTS ARE STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT 
AN ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS INSTEAD. AS THE SWELL TURNS MORE NORTH 
TO NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY...IT MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF HEIGHTS 
FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF THE NORTHERN ISLANDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH THE LARGE SWELL AND 
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI 
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU 
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD 
HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL 
HAWAIIAN WATERS.

&&

$$

HUI