FXUS65 KPUB 262226
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
326 PM MST THU NOV 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)

CWFA CURRENTLY GRACED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS 
AND MILD TO WARM LATE THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.  UPPER 
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER CWFA INTO FRIDAY...BREAKING DOWN SOMEWHAT 
BY LATE FRIDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY 
00Z SATURDAY.  

DRY AND MILD LATE NOVEMBER METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS PROJECTED TO 
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  HAVE 
CONTINUED TO PAINT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME IN 
COMBINATION WITH NIL POPS AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  EXPECT 
BOTH MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO RUN AT TO A CATEGORY OR SO 
ABOVE VALUES NOTED PREVIOUS 24 HOURS(WHICH IS WELL ABOVE LATE 
NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES).  FINALLY...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT 
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.  

.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

...SOME TRICKY TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY...
...MUCH COLDER LATE NEXT WEEK...

FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE PLEASANT WITH WARM AND DRY
SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S
OVR THE PLAINS WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE DAY.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE EFFECT OF A STORM MOVING THROUGH
COLORADO SAT NIGHT-SUN. ALL GUIDANCE NOW PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO THE S...THROUGH BAJA AND OLD MEXICO.
QUESTION FOR US WILL BE HOW MUCH TO EXPECT FROM THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THRU SAT NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL
BE CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR THE PLAINS AND NRN I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH LITTLE
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE NRN BRANCH OF THE SYSTEM. JUST ENOUGH
UPSLOPE ALONG WITH REASONABLY COLD AIR THAT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE HYR TRRN W OF I-25...AND MAYBE WITH LOCAL
SNOW BANDS FARTHER TO THE E. WITH THE STRONG SRN JET...MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE ERN SAN JUANS AND SRN SANGRES ON SUN.
AGAIN...LOW LVL WINDS LOOK WEAK...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE TO THE S...AND WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT COULD SEE ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVR THE PASSES. TRAVEL OVR THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY THE
SRN PASSES LIKE WOLF CREEK...CUMBRES...SLUMGULLION...LA
VETA...ETC...COULD BE A BIT TRICKY ESPECIALLY ON SUN. SINCE IT IS
A HIGH VOLUME TRAVEL DAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL
CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

THIS STORM PULLS AWAY RATHER QUICKLY ON MONDAY...WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS.
WARM UP IS A BIT SLOW HOWEVER WITH SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF SNOW PERSISTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD BE AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO MON...THEN ABOVE CLIMO BY TUE...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVR THE GRT BASIN. NEXT FRONT COMES THROUGH BY WED. LONG
RANGE SOLUTIONS HAVE YET TO CONVERGE ON WHETHER THE TRULY ARCTIC
AIR OVR CANADA CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR S LATE NEXT WEEK. 00Z CMWF WAS
BRUTALLY COLD...BUT HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE 12Z RUN. GFS IS 
CONSIDERABLY LESS COLD. WILL STICK WITH TEMPS THAT ARE CONSIDERABLY
BELOW CLIMO AND LONG RANGE MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH ALSO TENDS TO STAY
CLOSER TO CLIMO THAT FAR OUT. THIS MEANS 30S FOR THE
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE IN THE 20S IF THE COLDER SOLUTIONS
PAN OUT. ENJOY THE WONDERFUL HOLIDAY WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS! ROSE 

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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