FXUS63 KICT 281748
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1148 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SURROUND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SURROUNDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...SO USED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM MODEL. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE GUSTY A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND SPEEDS MAY BE UNDERDONE IN
CURRENT TAF FORECAST. FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU...LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...POSSIBLY
GOING LOW MVFR. IFR SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. FOR KCNU...MOIST
ADVECTION AND DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR-IFR
VSBYS/CIGS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE LOWER VSBYS TOWARD 12-14Z...WITH CIGS
LIKELY REMAINING LOW MVFR.
ADK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ONCE AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY...AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE COLD ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE OF NORTH WINDS SPEEDS. MEANWHILE...SOUTHEAST KANSAS COULD
SEE SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AND LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
JAKUB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
DURING THE NIGHT...A WEAK SFC TROF WAS MOVING SLOWLY E TOWARD CNTRL KS.
UPSTAIRS...A DEVELOPING MID-LVL SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING E ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER...INDUCING SOME HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF WRN
& CNTRL KS. THE MID-LVL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY E OVER
THE WRN PLAINS TODAY THEN SHEAR OUT AS IT VENTURES E ACROSS KS TONIGHT
AS IT DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KICT COUNTRY.
DISCUSSION...
TODAY:
ONE MORE DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR KICT COUNTRY
AS MODEST SLY WINDS TEAM WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO SEND MAXES INTO THE
60S. MAXES IN CNTRL KS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY TO THE LWR 60S DUE TO ONSET
OF MODEST COMPRESSIONAL WARMING PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT'S ARRIVAL.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT:
MARKED CHANGES STILL EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD
FRONT PUSHES SE ACROSS KS TONIGHT. WITH THE PARENT MID-LVL SHORTWAVE
SHEARING OUT AS IT CROSSES KS IT IS LIKELY THE COLD FRONT MAY NOT EXIT
SE KS TIL ~6AM CST. HOWEVER...ANY CHANCES FOR -RA WILL BE CONFINED TO SE
KS WHERE ALIGNED WITH WELL-DEFINED SFC-850MB MOISTURE AXIS & IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO EQUALLY WELL-DEFINED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN 285-295K LAYER.
AS COLD FRONT VACATES SE KS THE MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT GETS SHUNTED SE
OF KICT COUNTRY...TARGETING NE OK & NW AR ON SUN. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE
TO TAKE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO POPS FOR SE KS BY ONLY ASSIGNING 20-30%
TO THIS SUB-DIVISION. (ESPECIALLY WHEN MOISTURE MAGNITUDE IS SOMEWHAT IN
DOUBT AS SHORT-RANGE MODELS APPEAR A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
PARAMETER. MUCH COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SE ACROSS KICT COUNTRY AS
STRONG SEMI-INVERTED SFC RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE WRN PLAINS.
NEXT WORK-WEEK:
AFTER A CHILLY MON MORNING TEMPS QUICKLY MODERATE AS A SFC TROF DEVELOPS
OVER THE NWRN PLAINS & FORCES THE SFC HIGH S ACROSS THE RED RIVER. MAXES
WARMING INTO THE LWR 50S ON MON & MID 50S ON TUE APPEAR VERY REASONABLE
ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF TUES MAXES ARE INCREASED A FEW DEGREES
IN CNTRL KS...WHERE ONSET OF WLY FLOW PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH HIGHS TO ~60F. THE FORECAST FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD TO PROVE
QUITE CHALLENGING IN THAT A VERY INTENSE POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-UPR TROF
WILL SURGE SE FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON TUE. THE CREATURE MAY REACH
THE UPR MIDWEST ON WED...THEREBY FORCING THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT S/SE
ACROSS KS LATE TUE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT ALL FACETS OF INHERITED FORECAST
UNCHANGED UNTIL THESE LATER PERIODS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AT KRSL. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
SCHRECK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 65 39 46 28 / 0 0 10 0
HUTCHINSON 64 38 46 26 / 0 0 10 0
NEWTON 65 39 46 27 / 0 0 10 0
ELDORADO 66 40 47 28 / 0 10 20 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 66 41 47 29 / 0 10 20 0
RUSSELL 62 35 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 62 36 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 63 37 46 26 / 0 0 10 0
MCPHERSON 64 38 46 26 / 0 0 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 67 44 50 30 / 0 10 30 0
CHANUTE 66 43 49 30 / 0 10 20 0
IOLA 66 42 49 30 / 0 10 20 0
PARSONS-KPPF 67 43 50 30 / 0 10 20 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
