FXUS64 KHUN 091624 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1024 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST TEMPS AND CLOUDS. MINOR UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL SFC OBS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS NRN
AL...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LINGERING BEHIND IN NRN MISS. TEMPS
HAVE REBOUNDED RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH VALUES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPR 50S...AND FT PAYNE
EVEN REPORTING IN WITH 61F. THUS...ADJUSTED DAILY MAX TEMPS UPWARD
SEVERAL DEGREES BEFORE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS BY EARLY THIS
AFTN. GRIDDED VALUES WILL SHOW TEMP FALLS DURING THE AFTN.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WITH BETTER MIXING DUE PARTIALLY TO LACK OF CLOUDINESS. GUSTS OVER
40 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT MSL...ALBERTVILLE...AND ON TOP OF
MONTE SANO SO FAR THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER SITES REPORTING
GUSTS ARND 35 MPH. WITH THE SFC PRESSURE ANALYSIS INDICATING A
POSSIBLE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT UPSTREAM...AND ANTICIPATED
BETTER MIXING INTO THE AFTN...GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND
MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE EARLY AFTN. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY. 

A PNS WAS ISSUED DETAILING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND THE AREA. WILL
UPDATE WITH OTHER REPORTS AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE AND AS TIME
PERMITS.

&&

.AVIATION... 

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
USHER MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THUS VFR FLYING
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE NW AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009/ HE COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE THAT BROUGHT VERY HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS EXITED EAST OF ALABAMA...WITH
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATING THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL TO
THE WEST OF HERE. IN BETWEEN...SOME CLEARING IS NOTED ON IR
SATELLITE...BUT CLOUDS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND QUICKLY MOVING TOWARD
THE CWFA. THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND
CONTINUED FLOODING...IN ADDITION TO GUSTY POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT
WINDS. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM HSV/CHA/MSL SUGGEST THAT WEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH OVER THE "LOWLANDS" THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 45 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 3PM AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP IT
GOING FOR NOW. OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...EXPECT RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...BUT AS THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST...LOOK FOR SOME CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT AND WILL BE COOL 
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT /WITH COOP MOS SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 
TEENS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING/. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES 
EAST...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN GOMEX SYSTEM 
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A LITTLE ON FRIDAY...WITH 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES 
THE AREA. THE ISSUE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT CENTERS AROUND A POSSIBLE 
P-TYPE CONCERN AS NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A 
FEW HOURS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE WETBULB 
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST A ELEVATED WARM LAYER /OF AROUND 3C/ WITH 
SURFACE WETBULB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S. SO...DESPITE SOME 
UNCERTAINTIES...OPTED TO ADD IN A FREEZING RAIN MIX FOR THE HIGHEST 
TERRAIN OF FRANKLIN TN/JACKSON/DEKALB COUNTIES FOR LATE FRIDAY 
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

OFF AND ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT 
WEEK....WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ADVERTISING A MID-WEEK FRONT. WARMED 
UP TEMPERATURES A TAD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BUT OTHERWISE...VERY FEW 
CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE FORECAST PAST THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
     LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL...
     MORGAN.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KDW
AVIATION...RSB
PREV DISCUSSION...JLL