FXUS64 KBMX 252118
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
318 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S/40S AREA WIDE. A RE-ENFORCING SHOT
OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. THE DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.
HIGHS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM GATHERS STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. GFS
MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST INCONSISTENT MODEL WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO
RUN DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON MONDAY AND RAIN CHANCES RAISED TO LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHES INTO
AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...FORECAST IS HIGHLY SUSPECT AS MODELS ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE EXTENT OF PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROFS. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE NOW
DEPICTING A WEAKER SYSTEM AFFECTING ALABAMA MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROF MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
THE OVERALL TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET AND COOL MONDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LAST BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
SOON MOVE OUT OF MGM...BUT AFFECT TOI FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
HOURS. I DO THINK THAT CEILING LEVELS (IN THIS CLOUD BAND) WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT UP FROM THEIR CURRENT LEVELS OF AROUND 1500 FEET TO
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. OTHERWISE...VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
NO OTHER OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
/61/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 34 54 29 54 29 / 0 10 0 0 0
ANNISTON 37 57 31 56 31 / 0 10 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 39 56 33 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 37 56 34 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
CALERA 40 56 33 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 42 59 30 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 39 60 34 60 33 / 0 10 0 0 0
TROY 36 61 31 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
