FXUS63 KILX 231745
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1145 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1029 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009
THE FIRST WAVE OF THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN. DESPITE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE NUDGED
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN KILX CWA. AFTER A
CHECK WITH LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS STARK AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES...HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. MAY EVEN HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
SOUTH OF I-72 THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE THE AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO BETTER
REFLECT THE CURRENT SITUATION AND TO DROP THE ADVISORY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD. A SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...HOWEVER BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE ENDED THE PREDOMINANT RAIN
IN FAVOR OF VCSH AT KSPI...KDEC...AND KCMI AFTER 21Z. FURTHER WEST
AND NORTH...HAVE CONTINUED THE STEADY RAIN UNTIL 02Z...THEN
REPLACED IT WITH -SHRA. A SECOND WAVE OF STEADY RAIN WILL DEVELOP
TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE BROUGHT PREDOMINANT RAIN BACK TO THE TAF
SITES AFTER 09Z. BRISK E/SE WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 308 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SLID TO THE NORTH EAST AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
PICK UP IN THE SRN MISS RIVER VALLEY...AND A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW IN SRN PLAINS. MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN ILLINOIS ON THE EDGE OF
FREEZING AS OVERNIGHT TEMP DROP IS COUNTERED WITH WARMER AIR
TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MIDWEST. SOME FZ DRIZZLE AND GLAZING
STILL EXPECTED TO THE NORTH IN THE EARLY HOURS THIS MORNING...AND
GOING HEADLINES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD GRIP ON IT. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS SRN IL...AND THUNDER ALREADY IN THE SHOWERS ON THE
NOSE OF THE NOCTURNAL JET TO THE SW. FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HOLDING
STEADY FOR NOW AS THE MODELS ARE MAINTAINING SOME SEMBLANCE OF
CONSISTENCY. NAM/WRF IN THE SHORT TERM AND BLENDING THROUGH THE
MED RANGE. CLOUDY AND WET IS STILL THE RULE UNTIL FRI AFTERNOON
AS THE CWA MAKES THE SHIFT OVER TO SNOW.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...BUT JUST
DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74. THAT FAR NORTH...COLD
AIR IS STILL IN PLACE AND GLAZING OF ELEVATED AND UNTREATED ROADS
IS OCCURRING. KEEPING THE MENTION OF SOME FZ DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND GOING ADVSY FOR LIGHT ICING WILL CONTINUE. DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO REDUCE IT AT
ALL...ESP IN ADVANCE OF PEOPLE GETTING ON THE ROAD. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...CWA WILL GO TO ALL RAIN. THUNDER ALREADY ON
APPROACH...SHOULD MAINLY EFFECT THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE...CLOSER
TO THE DEVELOPING LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
COLD AND BLUSTERY AS THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN
WINDS AROUND 20 KTS TOMORROW...GUSTING TO 30 KTS. THO TEMPS WILL
BE APPROACHING UPPER 30S/NEAR 40...THE WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
INTO THE 20S. HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM TODAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH
UNTIL CHRISTMAS MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIP TOTALS WILL OCCUR
IN AREAS WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VERY WET HOLIDAY IN STORE...AND
TRAVELERS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND LEAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATION. HEAVY RAINS CAN QUICKLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY...AND NEVER CROSS WATER COVERED ROADS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HOLDING TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WITH SOME DRYING OUT
ALOFT...WILL LOSE ICE CRYSTALS WITH WEDGE OF DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM...AND WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...WILL STAY
RAIN A BIT LONGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
CHRISTMAS...WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF MOSTLY RAIN WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES IN THE WEST...THEN IN THE EAST FRI MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY
GOING OVER TO ALL SNOW FRI AFTERNOON...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH.
SYSTEM DRIFTING A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND...LEAVING MUCH OF CWA IN AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
