FXUS64 KMEG 301738
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1138 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR 18Z TAF CYCLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. THE PROGRESS OF CLEARING IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THIS MORNING LIKELY DUE TO THE WET GROUND...LOW SUN
ANGLE AND FRONTAL MOVEMENT. HAVE REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS WHERE THE CLEARING WILL TAKE SOME TIME.
OTHERWISE ALL AREAS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
BELLES
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING QUICKLY THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS
MORNING...AND WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK.
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH MS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT WAS ALSO MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL BE
MAINLY FROM ABOUT TUPELO AND SOUTHEASTWARD AT SUNRISE. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR TODAY ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED
SHALLOW DENSE FOG NEAR RIVERS AND CREEKS WITH THE WET GROUND AND
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...WILL LET DAYSHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THIS BEFORE
REINTRODUCING IN THE ZONES. TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH.
A TURN TO MORE WET WEATHER IS FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUED TO FAVOR
THE ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO EAST TX BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH MS. RAIN WILL SPREAD
INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE MIDSOUTH. A SURFACE
LOW WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND
EXACT PATH. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES TO OUR EAST. LOOKING AT THE
SOUNDINGS...THINK THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IF AND HOW SOON ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. FOR
NOW MENTIONED A CHANGE TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE OVER ABOUT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES EVEN FURTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ATTM...IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE EVENT AND
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM THUS KEEPING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS
AWAY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
BY THURSDAY MORNING PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALLOWING MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO PUSH INTO
THE MIDSOUTH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR
MINUS 10C ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDSOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL MOVES THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE AREA
QUICKER TO THE EAST THAN THE ECMWF OVER BY THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN BY SUNDAY. FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS COLD
CANADIAN AIR OVER THE MIDSOUTH LONGER AND ALSO KEEPS THE MIDSOUTH
RAINFREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
JCL
AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS AT KMEM...KMKL AND KTUP WILL LIFT AND CLEAR BTWN 18-22Z.
THE REST OF FCST PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH NORTH WINDS BECMG LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFT 03Z.
OKULSKI
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 52 36 60 45 / 10 0 0 50
MKL 49 28 57 39 / 10 0 0 30
JBR 51 32 56 39 / 10 0 0 30
TUP 52 33 58 45 / 10 10 10 60
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
