FXUS63 KGLD 080207
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
707 PM MST MON DEC 7 2009

.UPDATE...
659 PM MST MON DEC 7 2009

UPDATED THE ZONES TO REFLECT THE ADDITION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ISSUED FOR EASTERN COLORADO (SEE HIGHLIGHT BELOW).
TWEAKED SNOW AMOUNTS SOME OVER EASTERN COLORADO FOR THE ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

FS
&&

.DISCUSSION...
232 PM MST MON DEC 7 2009

BIG FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE UPCOMING MAJOR WINTER WINTER BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CANADA
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS LEAVING THE AREA IN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE VERY COLD AIR MASS WELL ENTRENCHED.

MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AND GOOD AGREEMENT AND ALSO CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING/OUTPUT. THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER OF THE
BUNCH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE CANADIAN/ECMWF/GFS WHICH LOOK TO
BE HANDLING THIS THE BEST.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY...NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. MAIN
THING WAS TO RAISE POPS...QPF...AND SNOW AMOUNT A LITTLE BIT WITH
SNOW ALREADY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. STRONG UPGLIDE ON
THE 295 SURFACE BEGINS IN ERNEST NEAR 06Z WITH OTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LIFT INCREASING AS WELL WITH EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER FOR MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW LATER IN THE NIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. SOME QUESTION ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES ON AMOUNTS.
THINK THEY COULD END UP BEING A LITTLE HIGHER BASED ON CURRENT
SPEED/TRACK OF SYSTEM. SO THAT IS WHY A WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THEM.
WHEN THE NEW DATA COMES IN THE EVENING SHIFT CAN DECIDE IF SHOULD BE
AN ADVISORY OR WARNING. CURRENTLY ADVISORIES ARE NEXT TO THOSE
COUNTIES.

REGARDLESS OF THE AMOUNTS THE WINDS LOOK VERY STRONG. MODELS ARE
SHOWING NEAR 10 MB OF GRADIENT TOMORROW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
PRESSURE RISES ACTUALLY HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
FRINGES. NEAR 30 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA...THERE
IS A WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT. AM VERY CONCERNED THAT WITH
THE DRY/FLUFFY SNOW ON THE GROUND ALREADY AND THE DRY/FLUFFY SNOW
EXPECTED TO FALL...VERY CLOSE TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP.
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS AGAIN
WITH AN ADDITIONAL UPGRADE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL GO NOWHERE TOMORROW WITH THE SNOWFIELD AND CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE UPSLOPE WINDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION
GOING ON. MANY LOCATIONS TODAY HAVE NOT REACH 10 DEGREES. SO WILL
SHOOT FOR BELOW GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE WANE
WITH THE EASTERN COUNTIES THAT ARE CLOSEST TO THE CIRCULATION
GETTING THE MOST ACCUMULATION DURING THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE
THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE GREATER IN THE EVENING THAN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A PROBLEM DURING THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH ALL THE SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO LOWER SOME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...WOULD EXPECT COLD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEEDING TO BE LOWERED DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DID NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THIS
PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED DURING THIS PERIOD.
TO START THIS PERIOD...EXPECT A WIDESPREAD SNOWFIELD OVER THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY BEGINNING IN OUR NORTHEAST HALF AND EXTENDING TO THE EAST
OF THE THERE. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING SO DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH MELTING FROM UNDERNEATH.

FOLLOWED/LOADED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MADE ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS. DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY IN A
SIMILAR SETUP TO OUR CURRENT PATTERN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW. LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW TO SEE HOW FUTURE
MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS PLUS NEIGHBORS WERE NOT EXCITED ABOUT THIS
DAY AT THIS TIME. A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY AND HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. THE MEX FROM SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY ARE TOO WARM AND LOOK TO BE AFFECTED BY CLIMATOLOGY. ALL
THESE FACTORS MEAN GOING BELOW TO MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION.

BULLER
&&

.AVIATION...
455 PM MST MON DEC 7 2009

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WINTER STORM SET TO IMPACT AREA. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL BE VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE DURING THE
EVENING TO IFR AT BOTH TERMINALS BY AROUND 06Z. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
12Z-20Z TUESDAY. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF VLIFR CIGS/VIS.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 15G25KT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AROUND 25G35KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS, WHICH WILL SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, BUT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

50
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ TO 11 PM MST 
     /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ TO 11 PM MST 
     /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ041-042.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ TO 11 PM MST 
     /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST 
     TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.

&&

$$