FXUS63 KPAH 081709
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1109 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO THE WIND ADVISORY...GRIDS AND AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE CHANGED THE WIND ADVISORY VALID PERIOD. IT NOW RUNS FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH 3 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP BEFORE 6 AM. IN FACT...AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH
OF ST. LOUIS AROUND MIDNIGHT TO OUR NORTH. WE ALSO EXPECT THE WINDS
TO SLACK OFF TO BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY. 

OTHER SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO RAISE TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY. ALSO TRIED
TO FINE TUNE THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD
BE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA FROM 21-06Z. WIND FIELDS
WILL BE DECENT...BUT A LOW TROP INVERSION REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROMINENT
SAVE FOR ABOUT A 3 HOUR PERIOD. SO CANNOT RULE OUT ENTIRELY SOME 
ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUSTS IF ENHANCED CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP.
OVERALL...THE CHANCE OF THE SEE TEXT SLIGHT RISK COMING TO FRUITION
SEEMS TO BE RATHER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EAST WINDS
WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY EVENING...WITH THE HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUING. CHANCE OF RAINFALL SHOULD
DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY FROM 06 UTC ON...WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASING TO STRONG AND GUSTY. WINDS IN THE 06-18Z UTC TIME
FRAME WILL BE OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT...SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-30
KTS AND PERHAPS GUSTS TO 40 KTS FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-
     DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-
     LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION 
     KY-WEBSTER.

MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW 
     MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION 
     IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

$$