FXUS64 KFWD 070541
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1141 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.AVIATION...
IFR TO VLIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES BETWEEN 09 AND 11Z AND WACO BETWEEN 10 AND 12Z. IFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT INITIALLY BUT SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT AND
BECOME VFR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS WILL RETURN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET MONDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST.
A LIGHT WIND EARLY WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS BEFORE SUNRISE. A NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 7 AND
10 KNOTS MONDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN MORE EAST...NORTHEAST MONDAY
EVENING.
79
&&
.UPDATE...
DREARY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S WITH AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS THE 00Z FWD RAOB SHOWS
SATURATION FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 875 MB. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM OKLAHOMA CITY TO FREDERICK TO
SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BE INTERSECTING THE
METROPLEX NEAR MIDNIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE FRONT IS
LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE BUMPED UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. JUST MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
85/NH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST...AS SOME FOG AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN TO OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...
PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-35 WHERE SOME RESIDUAL WEAK LIFT WILL REMAIN
PRESENT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH WINDS SHIFTING NNW
10-20 MPH AND FOG MAINLY HOLDING ON ACROSS EAST TX. COLD AIRMASS
WILL BE SHALLOW...YET COLD ENOUGH TO HOLD THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
...LOW 50S IN THE FAR SRN COUNTIES AS BROAD POLAR HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EWD TOWARD GT LAKES. AS STATED IN PAST FORECASTS WITH FAST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY BACK S/SE BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH NEXT FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS ONCE AGAIN...DRAWING SOME BRIEF MOISTURE
RETURN AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-35 ONCE AGAIN
...ALONG WITH SOME FOG/DRIZZLE.
NEXT COLD FRONT AND POLAR AIRMASS APPEARS BIT DEEPER AND MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WHEN THEY ARRIVE WED MORNING...BUT THANKFULLY LIFT/
MOISTURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION BY THEN WITH JUST A
REINFORCING OF THE COOL/BRISK WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SAME SCENARIO OCCURS WITH A BRIEF WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY EAST AGAIN WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...
BUT THE TOPSY TURVY WEATHER CONTINUES. LUCKILY...NOTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 37 47 41 60 38 / 10 5 30 20 5
WACO, TX 40 51 44 63 42 / 10 5 40 20 5
PARIS, TX 36 48 39 56 36 / 30 5 50 50 10
DENTON, TX 35 47 39 57 34 / 5 5 20 20 5
MCKINNEY, TX 36 48 39 58 36 / 10 5 30 30 5
DALLAS, TX 37 48 43 59 39 / 10 5 30 30 5
TERRELL, TX 40 50 43 61 39 / 20 5 40 40 10
CORSICANA, TX 41 53 45 62 43 / 20 5 40 40 10
TEMPLE, TX 41 51 44 64 44 / 10 5 40 20 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/85
