FXUS61 KCLE 301457
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT NOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND ALL RAIN
HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO
FILL BACK IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. WENT WITH EITHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING OVER
THE AREA WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE AREA
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA NOT
EXPECTING MUCH RECOVERY FOR TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING
FROM AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S WILL BE IT FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT KICKING OFF SOME
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. HOWEVER SINCE THE WINDS
STAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT SNOW FALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
TOO BAD. SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN
WITH ALL PRECIP ENDING BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. 

MODELS SOLUTIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS TRACKS
LOW ACROSS OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND ONTO LAKE ONTARIO BY 12Z
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE NAM IS MUCH WARMER TRACKING LOW ACROSS SE
LOWER MICHIGAN. FOR MY FORECAST USED THE ECMWF WHICH IS A
COMPROMISE. 00Z ECMWF HAS THE LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL PA BY 12Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT RAIN TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH AREA WEST OF LORAIN MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEANED TOWARD TO COOLER GFS TEMPS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

FIRST REAL COLD SHOT OF THE SEASON. BY 12Z FRIDAY BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DROP THE 850 TEMPS TO -11 C. LUCKILY FOR THE NOW THE MODELS
TURN THE WINDS ON LAKE ERIE TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THEN. BUT WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY BEHIND DEEP LOW PRESSURE 
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT A LOT OF 
THE AREA WILL SEE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH THE BEST 
CHANCE BEING IN EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA 
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THERE 
SOLUTIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH MORE 
PROGRESSIVE. GFS SLIDES HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA QUICKER THAN 
ECMWF SHOWS...WHILE 00Z ECMWF HOLDS ONTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS 
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. FOR NOW DIDN'T MAKE 
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH WAS SOMEWHAT MORE IN 
LINE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION. SHOWED A SOMEWHAT LARGER AREA OF SNOW 
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL 
PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST 
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR CIGS OVER
WESTERN AREAS AND MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER EASTERN AREAS.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS OVER FAR SERN AREAS AND SHOULD END OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY KEEP MAINLY MVFR
CIGS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY OVER NE OHIO AND NW PENNSYLVANIA...BUT
ELSEWHERE CIGS SHOULD EITHER REMAIN VFR OR IMPROVE TO VFR DURING
THE MORNING. THEN AS FLOW BACKS TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EVEN LAKESHORE WILL GO VFR. A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO MVFR CIGS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE FROM CLE AREA EASTWARD.

.OUTLOOK...
NON VFR LINGERING MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA WEDNESDAY. NON VFR
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON 
AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 4 PM. WINDS WILL 
DROP OFF FOR AWHILE EARLY TONIGHT BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES 
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. EXPECT 
WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 30KT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY 
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY BEING NEEDED 
AGAIN.  NAM 925MB WINDS WOULD SUPPORT GALES FOR A BRIEF TIME BUT 
OTHER MODELS WERE NOT QUITE AS STRONG.  SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE 
WINDS WEDNESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP OUT OF THE 
GULF COAST STATES WEDNESDAY PASSING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK 
THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED THEN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...RANDEL
AVIATION...RANDEL
MARINE...RANDEL