FXUS63 KICT 252358
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
558 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT-SATURDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. BEST
CHANCE FOR PERIODIC IFR-MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL BE FOR
KSLN-KRSL TONIGHT...CLOSEST TO BEST MID-LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION. KHUT-KICT-KCNU WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODIC LIGHTER SNOW
WITH P6SM VSBYS...ALTHOUGH PERIODIC MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW MAY
BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST. ANTICIPATING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN UNDER ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH
ONLY A TRACE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
ADK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TONIGHT TIL SUNDAY
MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH
IS CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE KS/MO BROADER AND APPEARS TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY WEST AS NOTED IN WV IMAGERY. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROTATE
IS WILL SPIN AROUND A FEW VORTEXES...ALONG WITH RETURN MOISTURE
FLOW...EXPECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. DUE TO THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
EXPECT ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND FLURRIES IN SE AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AS NOTED
IN THE PLUME DIAGRAMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO ROTATE KEEPING THE ISOBARS CLOSE TOGETHER. EXPECTING
WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH IN CENTRAL KS.
BESIDES PRECIPITATION AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
BRING CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO
CREATE ANOTHER HAVOC IN THE FORECAST INVOLVING TEMPERATURES. WITH
THE SNOW-PACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS...EXPECT IT TO BE COOLER
THEN MODELS ANTICIPATE. BUT WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...TEMPS
COULD BE WARMER. FOR THIS FORECAST DECIDED TO STAY COOLER AS TEMPS
TODAY ARE IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE SNOW-PACK LOCATIONS.
TOOK ALL PRECIP OUT OF THE GRIDS BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE IN WESTERN CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE SE AND PUSH THE LOW OUT OF
THE PLAINS AND INTO IA...AND EVENTUALLY THIS LOW WILL BE HEADING
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
AVG TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN EFFECT BECAUSE OF THE SNOW-PACK.
EXTENDED: MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HAVE MADE THIS FORECAST SOMEWHAT ONE
SIDED. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN ON MONDAY AND STAYING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
EVENTUALLY BEING ENGULFED INTO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS IS A QUICKER AND LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF...WHICH BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING TUESDAY. DECIDED TO LEAN WITH THE ECMWF SINCE IT HAS
REMAINED CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS...WHERE AS THE GFS HAS
BEEN DIFFERENT RUN TO RUN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DEEP CANADIAN COLD MASS
COMING DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE AREA.
WITH THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD AIR...WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR IN S KS WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 0C AND THEREFORE COULD SEE RAIN OR SNOW.
MERRY CHRISTMAS.
DUNTEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXING TO
SURFACE. NORTH AMERICAN MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS APPEARED
TO BE MUCH MORE REALISTIC OUT OF THE BOX. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS. NIXED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN SOUTHEAST KS WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. DID ADD ONE MORE ROW OF COUNTIES TO WIND ADVISORY
IN FLINT HILLS BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAD
STARTED CENTRAL KS AT MIDDAY AS A RESULT OF UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
-HOWERTON
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN ISSUE IS BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD SPILL INTO THE KHUT/KICT DURING AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN ROUND
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT/SAT AM AS MORE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT GIVEN PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AT KCNU TONIGHT. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 15 26 16 27 / 10 20 10 10
HUTCHINSON 14 25 17 28 / 20 20 10 10
NEWTON 13 25 15 27 / 20 20 10 10
ELDORADO 14 25 15 26 / 20 20 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 15 27 16 30 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 14 23 14 27 / 50 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 15 24 16 28 / 20 20 10 10
SALINA 14 23 13 27 / 50 20 10 10
MCPHERSON 13 24 15 27 / 40 20 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 14 26 14 27 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 14 25 14 27 / 20 10 10 10
IOLA 13 25 14 27 / 30 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 14 26 14 27 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
