FXAK68 PAFC 280130
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST FRI NOV 27 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA CONTINUES TO SWING NORTH TOWARD THE MAINLAND. AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER WESTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. 
AT THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY HAS DEPOSITED AREAS OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA. A TROUGH EXTENDS WEST OF THE LOW COMPLEX INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING. ANOTHER LOW 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS
HEADING TOWARD THE GULF.  

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODEL ARE INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE MAJOR STORM
SYSTEMS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND THE GULF...THE COMPLEX LOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA
WILL SPREAD INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. AREAS OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...ANCHORAGE AND
THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL BECOME SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE NEW
STORM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF SATURDAY
THEN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GALE
TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT AND SPREAD TO
THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN AND SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT AND
SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO SHOWERS SUNDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF KING SALMON WILL END THIS
EVENING. A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NEW BERING
SEA STORM WILL MOVE A WEATHER FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING LATE
SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
SUNDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A NEW STORM DEVELOPING EAST OF JAPAN WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING SEA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL
LIE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING, THE PRIBILOFS AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE
STORM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SUNDAY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BERING SEA STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING BY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SWING
NORTHEAST TO LIE ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY THEN
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE GULF TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM...120 170 172 175 176 179
         GALE...130 132 150 160 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM NOV 09