FXUS63 KFGF 262037
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
237 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEAST U.S. WITH
BROAD TROUGH OVER GULF OF ALASKA...AND POWERFUL STORM MOVING INTO
PAC NORTHWEST. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY HAS SLOWLY
MOVED EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN SASKATCHEWAN MOVING
SOUTHEAST...WITH LARGEST PRESSURE FALLS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTH. PERSISTENT BAND OF LOW CLOUDS JUST EAST OF VALLEY
DRIFTING EAST WITH SURFACE RIDGE...AS WAA GENERATED MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER SPREADS INTO DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG STORM MOVING ON SHORE FORECAST TO SPLIT WITH BULK OF ENERGY
HEADING TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER REGION. NORTHERN PORTION FORECAST TO
TRACK BASICALLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO AREA OF RISING
HEIGHTS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW OVER OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE WRUNG OUT CROSSING ROCKIES. LOW IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE LOW
WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL TRY TO BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE SUN FRIDAY SO HAVE BUMPED
UP HIGHS A TAD IN LINE WITH BEST GUIDANCE.

ON SATURDAY THE MAIN ENERGY AT 700 MB MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA WITH
THE STRONGEST LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN FA. SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH BROAD INVERTED TROUGH BACK
INTO CWFA. BEST LIFT WELL NORTH IN CANADA. AS 700 WAVE PASSES
ISENTROPIC DOWN GLIDE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS MAY HELP MIX
DOWN STRONGER WINDS SO HAVE UPPED SPEEDS VALLEY WEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IN LIGHT OF THE LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT AND SHALLOW
MOISTURE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CLOSER
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.

ON SUNDAY INCREASING MID-UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW AND STRENGTHENING
COLD ADVECTION SUGGESTS TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS AND FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-THU)...MODELS ALL SHOW THE SAME BASIC IDEA
OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CONUS...BUT ALL DIFFER ON
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING. THIS MAKES NAILING DOWN DETAILS DIFFICULT.
BEST SNOW CHANCES PROBABLY IN THE TUE NIGHT-WED PERIOD AND WILL
MAINTAIN THESE LOW POPS. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND PROBABLY
JUST FLURRIES. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...AND NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

EWENS/TG