FXUS63 KFGF 220237
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
835 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND 
TEMPERATURES. CERTAINLY A TRICKY FORECAST CONCERNING TEMPERATURES 
OVERNIGHT. ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM CLOUD SHIELD WILL BE BATTLING DRY 
EASTERLY FLOW RESULTING ONLY IN SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION SO FAR 
THIS EVENING. BOTH AND RUC AND GFS KEEPING FAR NE ND INTO NW MN OUT 
OF CLOUDS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED FORECAST 
MINIMUMS. TO COMPOUND PROBLEMS AM SEEING SOME PATCHY ST DEVELOPING 
ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA AS WELL AS WESTWARD EXPANDING ST 
ACROSS FAR NE FA WHICH WILL MAKE FOR BIG LOCALIZED TEMPERATURE 
SPREADS. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO FALL TOO FAR ACROSS WEST AND 
SOUTH UNDER CLOUDS AND CURRENT MINIMUMS SEEM OK. WILL HOWEVER NEED 
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER EXPECTED CLEAR AREA. 

A WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES WITH -SN ACROSS FAR SW FA FROM KABR 88D 
AND IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS TRENDS OF SHUTTING DOWN ISENTROPIC LIFT 
DURING THE EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POP POTENTIAL THROUGH THE 
NIGHT HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS UNLIKELY. 

ONLY OTHER CHANGES WILL BE ADJUST CLOUD TRENDS SLIGHTLY. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

VOELKER