FXUS63 KSGF 262339
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
539 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE OZARKS ON CHRISTMAS EVE IS STILL HAVING IMPACTS ON OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BRISK OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING A CONCERN. FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD SHOT LATE NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

THE BROKEN RECORD WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL PERIODICALLY ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
PRESENT TO CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHERE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WENT FAIRLY
CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH THE
CLOUDS AND WIND PLAYING BIG ROLES.

THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO OPEN UP AND EJECT EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG JET STREAK DIVES SOUTH OUT OF
WESTERN ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
BREAK. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE VERY CHILLY OVER THE WEST AS A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES IN OVER THE SNOW PACK. HAVE UNDERCUT ALL
FORMS OF GUIDANCE FOR EXPECTED LOWS.

SCHAUMANN

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN FLOW TO SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS 
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION 
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH ISEN 
ASCENT AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO MENTION A CHANCE FOR LIGHT 
PCPN.  EVENT A WAYS OUT TO BE PLACING MUCH CONFIDENCE ON PCPN TYPE 
THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND SOUNDINGS DEPICT DIMINISHING 
HUMIDITY IN COLUMN ABOVE -10...SO MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE FREEZING 
DRIZZLE THAN ANYTHING. 

ARCTIC FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING AN END TO 
THE MODEST WARMUP.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SINGLE DIGIT LOWS BY 
THE WEEKEND.

RUNNELS

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 27/0000Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...LOW END VFR OR MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPIN AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SFC
TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
MODERATELY STRONG WIND GUSTS AT TIMES. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$