FXUS61 KGYX 272122
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
422 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER COASTAL STORM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY SEEN
UPWARDS OF ONE INCH PRECIPITATION AND AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES OFF
TO THE NORTH AND EAST...SOME COASTAL AND UPSLOPE LOCATIONS MAY
SEE ANOTHER 1-1.5 INCHES...ABOVE GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. WENT WITH MET/MAV BLEND OF TEMPS.
EXTREME NORTHERN LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE LAST 3-4
HOURS WITH RECENT REPORTS OF ALL SNOW NEAR RANDOPLH IN COOS
COUNTY. IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS EXPECT RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPS DROP IN MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS OF
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. MAY SEE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH IN
SOUTHERN OXFORD, SOUTHERN FRANKLIN, SOUTHERN GRAFTON, AND SULLIVAN
COUNTIES TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL REMAINS AT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH RAIN NEAR DAYBREAK AND MAY
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW EXITS OUR REGION.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SNOW PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. STRONG GRADIENT WILL SETUP DURING SATURDAY WITH WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH. AROUND MIDDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS LOOK TO FINALLY START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SAT...AS WILL
THE UPSLOPE IN THE MTNS....AS SFC RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. SFC RIDGE SHOULD HOLD ON SUNDAY FOR A NICE MAINLY SUNNY
DAY...THEN ON SUNDAY A PROGRESSIVE 500MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A WEAK SFC REFLECTION THAT WILL
TRACK JUST N OF THE CWA...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE CWA ON MON. ATTM...LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY A FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO
QPF EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR TUE AND WED...WITH A COASTAL LOW ON TAP
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACKS...AND P-TYPE
AND QPF REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...IFR TO LIFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. KLEB MAY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
SOMETIME IN THE EVENING AS COLDER AIR WORKS FROM W-E OVERNIGHT. AS
LOW EXITS THE NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR/VFR. GUST NW WINDS...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SAT.
LONG TERM...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT EVE...WITH VFR EXPECTED INTO
SUN NIGHT. NEXT CHC FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...COASTAL DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
UPWARDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS
WHILE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUTER WATERS THROUGH 8
PM.
LONG TERM...GALES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ON SAT...BUT
WILL LKLY REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS THRU THE NIGHT. THINGS QUIET DOWN
FOR A BIT...BUT MAY RETURN SCA CONDS AGAIN LATE MON...AS WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NHZ001>003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NHZ005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/GLENN
NEAR TERM...GLENN
SHORT TERM...GLENN
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/GLENN
MARINE...CEMPA/GLENN
