FXUS61 KOKX 270905
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
405 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DEEPEN AND MOVE TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE SURFACE/COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE PAST THE AREA
TODAY...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MOVE
OVER THE AREA...HELPING REINFORCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND
AND NEAR 50 ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE ME COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS
WINDS INCREASE ALL THE WAY UP THE COLUMN. WE HAVE SEEN BEST MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OCCUR WHEN WINDS INTENSIFY ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER. FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL BEGIN WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...AND RUN IT THROUGH NOON
SATURDAY.
AS BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS EXIT THE AREA TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE HEIGHT AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEGIN TO
RELAX. COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIP TO HAVE ALREADY MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW. THAT SAID...HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP
QUICK ENOUGH TO SEE A STRAY FLAKE MIXED IN BEFORE THE SHOWERS
COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS AS CLOUD COVER REMAINS ENTRENCHED
OVER THE AREA PRECLUDING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AS THE COOLER AIR
FILTERS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY LEAVING THE AREA
PRECIP FREE BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
SKIES TO BE SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWING
THROUGH MON/MON NITE TIME FRAME. WHILE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT...EXPECT IT TO HAVE CLEARED THE
AREA BY TUESDAY WITH RIDGING MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK.
PATTERN CONTINUES TO GET COMPLICATED AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS BEGIN TO TAKE AIM ON THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS
APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT/OUT OF AGREEMENT FROM WHAT THEY
WERE JUST 24 HOURS AGO...SO WILL WAIT FOR BETTER RESOLUTION BEFORE
TACKLING THE EXTENDED ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES WELL EAST OF THE NJ COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM PA.
CONDS SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD IN THE MVFR RANGE...BUT THERE COULD BE
POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY EAST. RAIN E OF NYC ALSO CAUSING CIGS
TO BOUNCE UP AND DOWN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP
ALREADY INTO NASSAU COUNTY...SO ONSET TIMING AT NYC TERMS MAY BE
MORE ALONG THE LINES OF 07Z-08Z. EXPECT CIGS TO BOUNCE UP AND
DOWN HERE AS WELL...BUT WITHIN THE MVFR RANGE (ABOVE AND BELOW 2K
FT). LOW CHC OF LOW VFR CONDS AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z.
WINDS AT NYC TERMS MAY TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN FORECAST TO
BE LEFT OF 310. WINDS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 20-30G40-45KT...BUT WILL ADDRESS THIS FURTHER IN THE 12Z TAF
PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR. STRONG GUSTY W/NW WINDS.
SUN...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES JUST EAST OF THE WATERS. EXPECT
WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. GALES LIKELY BY LATE DAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM.
GALES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 50 KTS (STORM FORCE) LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT FEEL THESE WINDS WILL BE FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN. AS SUCH...GALE WARNING REMAINS.
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS
BACK TO THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SEAS BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND EXPECT ROUGH CONDITIONS IN STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALL WATERS. WESTERLY FETCH WILL RESULT IN MUCH
HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE SLOWLY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT CLOSELY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN
1/10 INCH WEST OF NYC...TO 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER EASTERN LONG
ISLAND/CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEGATIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
2 TO 3 FT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
NOT TOO LOW. FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR LOW WATER/BLOW OUT TIDES
OCCURS SATURDAY AROUND LOW TIDE CYCLE...WHICH IS THIRD PERIOD. AS
SUCH...STILL SOME TIME TO CONSIDER LOW WATER ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ067>081.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
NJZ002>006-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AL
NEAR TERM...LJM
SHORT TERM...PW/LJM
LONG TERM...LJM
AVIATION...AL
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY... LJM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW
