FXUS61 KBGM 101155
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
655 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY OVER CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK FROM THE
FINGER LAKES INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC TROF NOW EAST OF CWA WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
BACKSIDE. WINDS ARE TAKING AWHILE TO GET GOING ACRS THE AREA...WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS RANGING FM 30-35KTS ACRS THE LK PLAIN. THIS MAY BE THE
CASE FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MRNG HRS AS DOWNWARD MOMENTUM JUST ISN/T
THERE AT THIS POINT. HWVR...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP BY MID-MRNG
AGAIN. WINDS AT H8 WILL AVG BTWN 40-50KTS TODAY...HIGHEST ACRS THE
NORTH AND WEST. ASSUMING FULL MIXING...THIS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR OUR
ADVISORY/WARNING AREAS BUT PLAN TO LV HEADLINES AS IS.
LOW-LVL FLOW ACRS THE AREA WILL GNRLY ALIGN FM 250-260 DEGREES UNTIL
AFTN HRS. THIS WILL KEEP LK EFFECT SNOW AREA NORTH OF CWA WITH
EXCEPTION OF EXTRM NRN ONEIDA CNTY AND ALSO PORTIONS OF THE FINGER
LKS...WHERE STEUBEN/YATES/SENECA CNTYS MAY GET SOME SNOW FM LK ERIE
BAND. BY 18Z...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO MORE OF A 265 FLOW AND
DROP SOME SNOW INTO EXTREME NRN PORTIONS OF ONEIDA CNTY UP OVR THE
TUG HILL. HWVR THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE ORGANIZED SNOW WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE CWA THRU TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT AS WELL. CUD SEE
SOME STRAY FLURRIES WORK INTO PART OF UPSTATE NY TODAY.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MAXES
TOPPING OUT IN THE U20S/L30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WL STILL BE STRONG FOR A TIME OVRNGT WITH H9 WINDS STILL
PROGGED TO BE ARND 45 KTS ALONG THE LK PLAIN. CURRENT ADVISORY
EXPIRES AT 00Z THIS EVNG. IN ORDER TO AVOID DOUBLE WIND HEADLINES BY
TACKING ON ADDN/L WIND ADVISORY THRU MIDNIGHT ACRS THE LK
PLAIN...WILL FOREGO THAT OPTION FOR NOW AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS POTENTIAL FOR EITHER DROPPING WARNING TO ADVISORY AND
EXTENDING IN TIME OR EXTENDING WARNING.
STEADIER LES IS EXPECTED TO SLIP INTO NRN ONEIDA CNTY LATER ON THIS
EVNG...WITH FAIRLY STEADY SNOW LKLY MVG IN AFT MIDNIGHT. ONCE THIS
BAND SETS UP...IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MV THRU SATURDAY WITH THE
OCNL WAFFLING. HV INCRSD POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR NRN ONEIDA CNTY.
GIVEN STRONG OMEGA FIELDS...INVERSION LVL UP ARND H7 AND
MODERATE-EXTREME INSTABILITY PROGGED BY BUFKIT SNDGS FOR
KRME...SIGNIFICANT LK EFFECT EVENT LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE
TUG FM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL SAT AFTN. ACCUMS IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LEWIS/OSWEGO CNTY LINES.
FURTHER SOUTH TWD RME AND JUST NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY...IT APPEARS
THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AMNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE RANGING FM 4-7 INCHES.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH THIS WILL SNEAK INTO NRN
MADISON/ONONDAGA CNTYS. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH HEAVIEST BAND
WILL STAY NORTH OF KSYR THRU MOST OF THE EVENT.
GIVEN LATEST MODEL SOLNS AND CONSISTENCY FM PRVS RUNS WILL ISSUE A
LES WATCH FOR NRN ONEIDA CNTY STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AND CONTG UNTIL
18Z SATURDAY. AFT THIS TIME...INVERSION WILL START TO LOWER AND
WINDS BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST. WILL CONT THREAT FOR LES OVR
SRN ONEIDA/MADISON/ONONDAGA IN HWO WITH ADVISORIES POSSIBLY NEEDED
LATER ON DOWN THE LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL...IT APPEARS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH
MONDAY. SOME WEAK UPPER LVL FEATURES MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA AND
INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT OVER WRN NY...TO GENERATE SOME CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND POSSIBLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ANYTIME
THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY BETTER AMPLIFICATION APPEARS FOR TUESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW. SPRAWLING COLD...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. N-NWLY FLOW SHOULD
RESPAWN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE AREA. SEASONABLY COLD
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND FORECAST. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE
THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AND RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 KTS. OF COURSE LOCALLY HEAVY
SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS AT KSYR-KRME
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. VFR WITH SCT-BKN
CIGS AND A CHC OF MVFR CIGS KITH-KELM-KBGM-KAVP.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF CALENDAR DAYS WITH LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF SNOW HAS ENDED AT 287 DAYS. THE SYRACUSE AREA HAD NOT
HAD AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY SINCE FEBRUARY
24TH. SINCE MIDNIGHT...THE AIRPORT HAS MEASURED 3.7 INCHES OF
SNOW...THUS THE STREAK IS OVER. THE FIRST INCH OF SNOW FELL AT 3 AM.
THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA FROM
THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO BACK TO
1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY FOR SYRACUSE.
YEARDAYS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
1) 2009 287 DAYS FEB 25TH TO DEC 8TH
2) 1946 276 DAYSFEB 28TH TO NOV 30TH
3) 1998274 DAYSMAR 23RD TO DEC 21ST
4) 1978 265 DAYS MAR 7TH TO NOV 26TH
5) 1941 263 DAYS MAR 22ND TO DEC 9TH
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ023>025-
044>046-055>057-062.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022-036-037.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10
CLIMATE...
